Lithuania hosts Andorra as a slim favorite

Lithuania and Andorra face off at S. Darius and S. Gireno Stadium in an International Friendlies clash that matters more for taking the temperature of two teams still finding their footing than for settling anything on a table. Neither side has had much to boast about lately, so this meeting is a decent chance for either one to snap out of its funk.

Edgaras Jankauskas' side arrives off a draw in its last outing, though that result can't hide the fact that in its last five matches it managed just one win, two draws and two losses. It's an uneven run, the kind that offers no guarantees. Andorra, with Koldo Álvarez in charge, isn't going through its best stretch either: over its last five games it picked up three losses, one win and one draw, a record that tilts firmly toward the negative.

Looking at the 2025 season trend sample in International Friendlies (home and away combined), Lithuania is averaging 0.667 goals scored and 0.667 conceded per match, with 100% of the games in that sample finishing without conceding, and when it does score, it tends to do so within the first 15 minutes. Worth noting: that sample is just one match, so it should be taken with a grain of salt. Andorra, in its own two-match sample under the same competition and season, hasn't scored at all (0 per match) and has conceded 0.57 on average, with half of those games ending clean defensively, and its most common scoring window is also the first 15 minutes.

The probable lineups

The data doesn't include a confirmed formation for either side, so everything below is a low-confidence estimate based on recent call-ups. For Lithuania, Edgaras Utkus and Gvidas Gineitis look like the most fixed names, having started in the last six matches analyzed, alongside players like Justas Lasickas, Vilius Armalas and Artemijus Tutyskinas. In goal, Tomas Svedkauskas and Dziugas Bartkus have split starting duties.

For Andorra, Iker Álvarez stands out as the most consistent goalkeeper, starting in five of the last six matches, while in the rest of the field Max Llovera, Moisés San Nicolás, Biel Borrà and Ian Olivera anchor the defense, with Éric Izquierdo, Guillaume López, João Teixeira and Éric Vales as options in midfield.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model projects a tight scenario, though with a slight lean toward the home side:

These numbers don't paint Lithuania as a clear favorite: the 48% figure sits alongside a 39% chance of a draw, leaving the door wide open for the scoreline to stay at zero or end level. Andorra, at just 13%, comes across as the side with the slimmest odds of taking the win. In expected goals, our own estimate puts the figures at 0.98 for Lithuania and 0.38 for Andorra, a combined 1.35 that points to a match short on clear chances. Worth clarifying that this is an in-house projection, not a sportsbook line.

With both teams looking to right the ship, the match at S. Darius and S. Gireno Stadium shapes up as tight and low scoring, with Lithuania pushing from the opening whistle at home and Andorra trying not to repeat the stumbles it's piled up in its recent outings.