Mainz fires 22 shots but can't find a way past Paderborn in scoreless draw

Mainz 05 crashed into the Paderborn defense time and again, but the scoreboard read 0-0 at the final whistle inside MEWA ARENA. The number that tells the story: 22 shots for the home side against just 10 for the visitors, and still nothing to show for it. A crossbar off Phillip Tietz's header in the 36th minute summed up the afternoon: all that was missing was finishing, or maybe a bit of luck.

The match, part of the Bundesliga slate, saw Mainz take control from the opening whistle. As early as the 1st minute, Lee Jae-Sung tested the Paderborn goal from outside the box, and from there the home team kept probing down the flanks, sending crosses into the area aimed at Tietz's head. Paderborn answered with some danger of its own through Laurin Curda, who came close in the 8th minute and tried his luck again shortly after, though he couldn't find the finish.

The clearest chance of the entire first half came in the 36th minute, when Tietz met a corner delivery from Nadiem Amiri with a header from point-blank range that clanged off the crossbar. It was the most serious warning of a first half in which Mainz also created chances through Lee Jae-Sung, Kaishu Sano and Amiri himself, none of which found the net. The teams went into the break scoreless, a result that didn't quite reflect the home side's territorial dominance.

A second half of pressure without reward

The second half followed much the same script. Mainz continued to dictate play, with shots from Anthony Caci, Phillipp Mwene, Danny da Costa and Dominik Kohr, all either well handled by the Paderborn goalkeeper or narrowly off target. Da Costa was especially persistent in the stretch between the 71st and 73rd minutes, firing off three headed attempts that never found their mark. Paderborn, meanwhile, had its own flashes through Steffen Tigges, who came on as a substitute in the 66th minute and tried a couple of headers late in the match, and Raphael Obermair, who forced a save from distance in the 79th minute.

Substitutions on both sides (Otto Ruoppi and Ransford Königsdörffer for Mainz, Jonah Sticker and Tom Baack for Paderborn) did little to change the storyline. The home side kept piling up corners, ending with 11 to just 2 for the visitors, and shots, but the finishing touch never arrived. Four minutes of stoppage time were added at the end, during which Mainz still searched for a winner through Da Costa, without success.

The numbers behind the draw

Mainz's superiority also shows up in the post-match expected goals figures: 1.669 for the home side compared to 0.961 for Paderborn. Those numbers back up what was seen on the field: a team that created more and created better, but couldn't turn it into goals.

The result also runs counter to what was projected before kickoff. Our preview gave Mainz a 60% chance of winning, against 23% for a draw and 17% for a Paderborn win, with expected goals of 2.04 for the home side and 0.99 for Paderborn. Reality turned out very differently: despite the dominance, the scoreboard stayed blank.

With this result, both teams sit on one point after matchday one, each coming off a draw, and share the same spot in the table. For Mainz, the split points leave the feeling of a missed opportunity. For Paderborn, a point that might feel underwhelming given how much it had to withstand, but one it takes home from a ground where the opponent had almost everything except the goal.