Manchester City beats United 0-1 at Old Trafford with ten men and a Haaland strike

Playing with ten men for more than an hour and barely needing to test the goalkeeper, Manchester City took the derby 0-1 at Old Trafford thanks to a single strike from Erling Haaland. United dominated possession, created more chances, but ultimately ran into a City side that defended with discipline and struck when it mattered.

The match changed entirely in the 22nd minute, when Phil Foden was shown a red card for fighting. From that point on, City had to regroup a man down for the rest of the game, something that on paper should have made things easier for United. But the home side, despite piling up chances (Marcus Rashford's free kick off the post at the end of the first half, Kobbie Mainoo hitting the post right at the start of the second), couldn't find the breakthrough.

Then came the blow. In the 59th minute, Erling Haaland finished with his left foot from point blank range, right in the middle of the box, for the 0-1. The goal was reviewed by VAR before it went up on the scoreboard, but it stood. It was essentially the only clear chance City had all match, and it was enough.

United kept trying until the final whistle: shots from Bruno Fernandes, from Benjamin Sesko off the bench, from Matheus Cunha, a header from Harry Maguire in stoppage time. None of it went in. City, with Ruben Dias and company shutting down passing lanes, weathered nearly six-tenths of the match with a man down and held onto the slim lead until the end, when the referee added five minutes that weren't enough for a home equalizer.

What the numbers say

United was more persistent with the ball and in attempts on goal, but the finishing let them down: 16 shots to just 3 on target. City, with less possession and a man down from the first quarter hour, needed only two shots on target to walk away with all three points.

The expected goals split for the match (our own estimate, calculated from the shots taken) lines up with how tight the scoreline was: 1.05 for United versus 1.16 for City. In other words, neither side generated much real danger despite the home team's territorial control, and Haaland's goal ended up being the difference between a reasonable draw and an away win.

The result also runs counter to what we projected before kickoff: the preview gave a 46% chance of an away win, 28% for a home win and 26% for a draw, with total expected goals of 3.13. In the end there was just one goal in the entire match, well below that projection, though the outcome itself (a City win) was indeed the most likely result according to that forecast.

What the match leaves behind

Manchester City picked up all three points despite playing more than an hour with ten men, which says a lot about their defensive solidity that day. In the Premier League table, City sits on 12 points from four games, just one spot and level on points with leaders Arsenal. United, meanwhile, are stuck on 4 points from four games and still can't find consistency: they controlled possession, generated more shots, but once again came away empty handed at Old Trafford.