Manchester City favored at Old Trafford, though a draw or home win add up to over 50%

Old Trafford hosts a derby this weekend that arrives with a clear gap in the standings: Manchester City sits atop the table with a perfect record, while Manchester United is down in 11th place. The match is part of the Premier League and pits together two clubs going through very different starts to the season.

United has a record of one win, one draw and one loss through three matches in the competition, scoring 7 goals and conceding 6. Over its last five games across all competitions, the run reads two straight losses, a win, a draw and another win, an inconsistent stretch that raises doubts about the home side's stability. In the table, United sits on 4 points, the same tally as Sunderland, Crystal Palace and Ipswich Town, though goal difference places it 11th.

City, on the other hand, arrives unbeaten: three wins in three Premier League matches, scoring 7 goals and conceding just 2. Its recent form is also strong, with four wins in its last five matches and only one loss in that span. The points gap between the two sides in the table stands at 5, a reflection of Pep Guardiola's side's commanding start compared to their Manchester rival's inconsistency.

It's worth noting that, according to our model, in this season's Premier League, combining home and away matches, United averages 2.33 goals scored and 2 conceded per game across a small sample of just three matches, with no clean sheets, while City also averages 2.33 goals scored but only 0.67 conceded, with 33% of its matches ending without conceding. This data comes from a different sample than the season standings and shouldn't be confused with it, but it does paint a picture: City has been considerably more solid defensively in that stretch. Bruno Fernandes leads United as top scorer in that sample with 3 goals, while Erling Haaland tops City's list with the same tally.

An even head-to-head record, with a recent edge for the visitors

The all-time series between the two sides stands at 8 matches, with 3 wins for Manchester United, 3 for Manchester City and 2 draws. In terms of goals, though, City holds a clear edge: 12 goals scored compared to United's 8, a gap that suggests back-and-forth matches but with the sky blue side getting more out of it going forward.

Possible lineups

With low confidence according to our projections, United could field Senne Lammens in goal, with a back line including Dorgu, Maguire, Shaw, Lisandro Martinez and Mazraoui, and a midfield of Bruno Fernandes, Tielemans, Cunha, Mbeumo and Mainoo.

On the visiting side, with medium confidence, City could line up with Donnarumma in goal, a back line of Gvardiol, Dias, Guehi and Khusanov, and a midfield group featuring Semenyo, Foden, Anderson, Cherki and O'Reilly, with Haaland leading the line.

What the numbers say

Our model estimates the probabilities for this match as follows:

City comes in as the favorite, but without an overwhelming edge: a draw and a home win combined add up to more than 50%, so this can't be called a lopsided matchup. Expected goals (xG), an in-house estimate, also favor the visitors: 1.78 to United's 1.35, for a projected total of 3.13 goals. That lines up with the model's broader trends, which put the probability of more than 2.5 goals at 67% and the probability of both teams scoring also at 67%. Everything points to an open match, with scoring chances likely at both ends.

With the league lead on the line for City and United in need of rediscovering some consistency, Old Trafford promises a derby with plenty at stake, well beyond what the pre-match numbers suggest.