Manchester City rallies in stoppage time to beat Bournemouth at home

Manchester City had to wait until the 90th minute, with a VAR review thrown in, to avoid opening the season with a home stumble. The final score was 2-1 over Bournemouth at the Etihad Stadium in the Premier League, in a match the home side controlled from start to finish but very nearly let slip after an early goal from the visitors.

Everything was decided in a matter of minutes. Before the half-hour mark, Marcus Tavernier put Bournemouth ahead with a low finish from the center of the box, set up by Evanilson, in the 25th minute. That goal, almost the only real scare Bournemouth created all match, held up on the scoreboard for more than an hour, even as City kept generating chance after chance. Erling Haaland came close several times (a header in the 38th minute that grazed the crossbar, a shot off target in the 43rd, another saved in the 74th), but the equalizer took its time to arrive.

It finally came in the 83rd minute: Marc Guehi headed home a corner delivered by Rayan Cherki from the center of the box to make it 1-1. City, who had brought on Cherki and Jack Grealish to freshen up the attack, kept pushing until the end and were rewarded in stoppage time. In the 90th minute, Josko Gvardiol finished with his right foot, just inside the post, after a through ball from Cherki, to make it 2-1. The goal was awarded after a VAR review, confirmed in the 91st minute.

A dominant performance that took time to show on the scoreboard

The numbers explain why City ultimately walked away with all three points despite the early scare. Pep Guardiola's side controlled possession, created clear-cut chances and pinned Bournemouth back for long stretches of the match.

The in-house xG estimate calculated from the match's shots tells the same story: 2.412 for Manchester City against just 0.565 for Bournemouth. It's a reading of what each team generated on the field, not a prediction, but it confirms that the scoreline was out of step with the run of play for nearly the entire match.

Before kickoff, the projection published in the preview gave Manchester City a 60% chance of winning, against 17% for Bournemouth and 23% for a draw, with expected goals of 2.07 for the home side and 1.02 for the visitors. The final result, 2-1, ended up matching that forecast fairly well in terms of the winner, though the path there was rockier than those numbers suggested: City had to come from behind in the final ten minutes to avoid dropping points at home.

What it means in the standings

With this result, Manchester City picks up its first win of the campaign and sits in 7th place with 3 points from 1 match played, though that position shouldn't be read into too much: only one matchday has been played and several teams share the same point total. Bournemouth, meanwhile, is left without points after this defeat, its first of the season, three points behind City based on the gap the standings currently show between the two sides.

The match leaves the impression of a Manchester City side that controlled everything but the scoreboard for much of the second half, and that needed Cherki as a spark off the bench, with two assists on the decisive goals, to secure a win that, given how the game unfolded, should never have been in doubt until the very end.