Mathías Tomás Rescues Puebla in Stoppage Time With a Screamer Against Necaxa

Estadio Victoria was bracing for the final whistle and a scoreless draw that would have left both sides feeling they'd gotten little out of the night, when Mathías Tomás stepped up. In the 92nd minute, a left-footed strike from outside the box that curled into the top left corner took the wind out of Necaxa and handed Puebla all three points with a hard-earned 0-1 in Liga MX action.

The goal came on the counterattack, assisted by Alejandro Organista, one of Puebla's most active players all night. It was no fluke either: Organista had already set up Facundo Almada and Omar Moreno on Puebla's earlier chances in the first half, though neither of those found the net.

A Choppy First Half, a Back and Forth Second

The opening 45 minutes were a study in disjointed soccer, full of fouls and short on space. Javier Ruiz tested his luck from distance for Necaxa and Carlos Baltazar answered with a header for Puebla, but both efforts sailed high. The break arrived scoreless, with three players booked in the closing stretch of the first half: Juan Vargas, Raúl Martínez and Fernando Monárrez.

The second half opened with four substitutions right away (two per side), and the match picked up pace. Necaxa had its best spell between the 53rd and 55th minutes, with a blocked shot from Julián Carranza, another from Kaiky Naves that drifted just wide, and one more from Kevin Rosero that was also blocked. The home side pushed forward, piling up corner kicks, but couldn't find the accuracy to turn that pressure into a goal.

Puebla, for its part, stayed patient and found its clearest chances late: Ignacio Maestro Puch tried a header and then a shot that drew a strong save from the home goalkeeper already in stoppage time. That late siege eventually paid off with Tomás's left-footed strike, coming after six added minutes that seemed like they would never end.

What the Numbers Say

Necaxa controlled possession and generated more combined buildup play, but Puebla was sharper in front of goal.

The post-match xG estimate, calculated by our model based on shot location, favors Necaxa with 1.552 against Puebla's 0.567. In other words: the home side generated more accumulated danger over the course of the match, but it was the visitors who converted with precision at the right moment.

That reading runs counter to our preview projections, where we gave Necaxa a 54% chance of winning against Puebla's 21% (with a 25% chance of a draw), and expected goals of 1.96 for the home side versus 1.18 for the visitors. The result ended up being the exact opposite of what we anticipated.

What This Means in the Standings

With this result, Puebla reached 13 points from 7 matches played (4 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses), pulling to just 5 points behind Necaxa in the table. The home side, meanwhile, sits on 8 points from 8 matches played (2 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses), adding another defeat that weighs on their goal difference, which is already negative.

For Puebla, a win that came by the narrowest of margins but is explained by their sharpness in the final minutes. For Necaxa, the feeling of having controlled much of the match without that being enough to take anything away from Estadio Victoria.