Necaxa and Puebla Clash at Estadio Victoria as Both Sides Fight to Escape the Basement

Estadio Victoria hosts a clash of crossed needs on Saturday: Necaxa and Puebla are separated by just 2 points in the Liga MX standings, and neither side can afford to keep losing ground near the bottom of the table.

Los Rayos sit 13th, with a record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in 7 matches played, 9 goals scored and 12 allowed. That negative goal difference (-3) paints the picture of a team that's struggling defensively. Over their last five matches, Necaxa have managed just one win, two draws and two losses, a stretch that confirms the inconsistency. Puebla, ninth with 10 points, carry a somewhat sturdier record: 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 6 games, with 9 goals for and 9 against. Still, their recent form is also cause for concern: over the last five matches they've picked up two wins and three losses, with no draws in between.

The head to head history clearly favors the home side: of 8 meetings, Necaxa have won 4, 3 have ended in draws and Puebla have won just once, with the Hidrocálidos outscoring Puebla 12 goals to 7 overall.

What the Other Numbers Show

Outside the official tournament record, there's data worth examining carefully, without mixing it into the standings picture. Playing at home in the 2026 Liga MX season (a sample of 4 matches), Necaxa average 1.505 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game, with no clean sheets, and their strongest scoring window comes between the 76th and 90th minutes. Julian Carranza stands out as their top scorer in that sample, with 4 goals. Puebla, on the road and also over 4 matches this season, average 1.245 goals for and 1.5 against, with a 25% clean sheet rate and their best scoring stretch between the 16th and 30th minutes. Eduardo Mustre leads the way there, with 3 goals.

Possible Lineups

Necaxa's likely starting eleven, rated low reliability based on recent matches, would see Luis Jimenez in goal; a back three or four with Kaiky Naves, Agustin Oliveros and Alexis Peña; Lorenzo Faravelli, Danny Leyva, Owen Gonzalez and Carlos Vargas in midfield; and up top Matias Espindola, Julian Carranza and Javier Ruiz.

Puebla, with a medium reliability estimate, would likely field Ricardo Gutierrez between the posts; Iker Moreno, Juan Vargas, Fernando Monarrez and Facundo Almada across the back; Brayan Garnica, Alejandro Organista, Kevin Velasco, Alonso Ramirez and Carlos Baltazar in midfield; and Eduardo Mustre as the focal point up front.

The Odds

Our model gives Necaxa a clear edge for playing at home, though it doesn't rule out Puebla or a draw.

A 54% chance for the home side against 21% for the visitors leaves the draw, at 25%, as a real possibility: this isn't a match that's locked in for either team, though home advantage and recent history tilt the scale toward Los Rayos. This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line. On top of that, our model projects a combined total of 3.14 expected goals between the two sides, in line with 75% of the trends pointing to over 2.5 goals and another 75% pointing to both teams scoring.

With Necaxa needing all three points to climb out of the lower half of the table and Puebla looking to steady an up and down run of form, the match at Estadio Victoria promises more than just points: it promises goals at both ends.