Mexico and Colombia Are Dead Even in the Numbers Ahead of Baltimore Friendly

M&T Bank Stadium hosts a matchup with an uncomfortable recent history for Mexico: in the last four meetings between these two national teams, Colombia won all four, with a lopsided 12-4 aggregate scoreline. That number hangs over the buildup, though this game falls under the banner of International Friendlies and carries none of that baggage into today's result.

Rafael Marquez's Tricolor arrive on the back of four straight wins before a stumble in their most recent outing, based on form across their last five matches. It's a short run, but a telling one about where this team stands right now. As hosts in International Friendlies during 2025, meanwhile, they've been a scoring machine: they average 2.823 goals scored and 1.843 conceded per game across that six-match sample, with clean sheets in 67% of those games and a scoring window that tends to open between the 46th and 60th minutes. Johan Vasquez and German Berterame lead the group with two goals apiece in that stretch, and Luis Chavez has added one.

Colombia, for its part, hasn't lost in its last five matches: three wins and two draws make for a solid run. Nestor Lorenzo can also lean on a defense that, across its 2025 International Friendlies sample of eight matches home and away, has conceded just 0.88 goals per game and kept a clean sheet 50% of the time, while averaging 2 goals scored per match with its best scoring stretch coming late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. Jhon Arias stands out in that sample with three goals, followed by Luis Suarez and Jhon Lucumi with one each.

The Likely Lineups

For Mexico, the projected XI has Raul Rangel in goal behind a back line of Cesar Montes, Jorge Sanchez, Johan Vasquez and Jesus Gallardo, all regulars in recent matches. In midfield, Erik Lira and Luis Romo would likely start, with Gilberto Mora as an alternative who has started three of the last six games. Up front, Roberto Alvarado, Julian Quinones and Raul Jimenez would round out the attack, though this lineup is a projection and not confirmed.

Colombia, by the same measure, would line up with Camilo Vargas in goal and a back four of Jhon Lucumi, Davinson Sanchez, Johan Mojica and Daniel Munoz. In midfield, Jhon Arias, Jefferson Lerma, Gustavo Puerta and Luis Diaz would provide balance, while James Rodriguez and Luis Suarez would lead the attack. Here too, everything remains subject to confirmation.

What Do the Numbers Say Before Kickoff?

Our model doesn't see a clear favorite. In fact, the most likely outcome isn't even a win, it's the draw.

Expected goals point to the same kind of balance: 0.85 for Mexico versus 0.74 for Colombia, an estimated total of 1.59 goals in the match, figures that reflect our own projection and not a betting line. Additional trends suggest a 54% chance of more than 2.5 goals and a 58% chance both teams score, so a tight match with goals from both sides wouldn't be a surprise.

With both sides riding favorable recent form and a head to head record that only smiles on Colombia, this meeting in Baltimore promises to be more competitive than the recent results might suggest.