Unbeaten Milan host a Bologna side desperate for points at the Meazza

Milan still doesn't know what it feels like to lose in Serie A this season. Eight matches, five wins and three draws back up that claim, and now the club hosts Bologna at the Giuseppe Meazza, a side arriving in a completely different situation, stuck in the lower half of the table. It's a matchup between a team cruising near the top and one trying to break free from an uncomfortable spot, and that's exactly what's on the line this time.

Ruben Amorim's side sits fourth with 18 points, just four behind leaders Inter and Lazio, who both have 22. Their record in the league remains unbeaten: 16 goals scored against 7 conceded across eight matches. Over their last five games they've picked up three wins, one draw and one loss, a run that confirms their consistency without hiding the fact that they've stumbled recently too. For context, playing at home in Serie A this season, Milan is averaging 2.667 goals scored per match and just 0.667 conceded, keeping a clean sheet in 67% of its home games; Adrien Rabiot stands out as the team's top scorer in that sample.

Bologna, meanwhile, sits 13th with 8 points, the product of two wins, two draws and four losses, with a negative goal difference of 8 scored to 10 conceded. Over their last five matches they've gone two wins, one draw and two losses, an inconsistent run that hasn't settled into any clear shape. Playing on the road in Serie A this season, they're averaging 1 goal scored per match and 0.76 conceded, with clean sheets in just 25% of those games; Federico Bernardeschi leads their scoring charts in that category.

The head-to-head history doesn't favor Bologna either: of eight meetings, Milan has won four, there have been two draws, and Bologna has won twice, with a goal tally of 13 to 7 in Milan's favor.

Probable lineups

For Milan, the projected lineup, flagged as low reliability by the model, sticks with familiar names from recent matches: Mike Maignan in goal, Strahinja Pavlovic and Koni De Winter at the back, and a midfield featuring Fikayo Tomori, Ardon Jashari, Luka Modric and Pervis Estupiñán. Up front, the attacking trio could include Christian Pulisic, Gonçalo Ramos, Adrien Rabiot and Omari Hutchinson.

On Bologna's side, with medium reliability, the projected XI has Lukasz Skorupski in goal, a back line of Arthur Theate, Torbjørn Heggem and Matteo Darmian, and a midfield of Lewis Ferguson, Tommaso Pobega, Juan Miranda and Nadir Zortea. Up top, the attack could feature Nicolò Cambiaghi, Federico Bernardeschi and Roberto Piccoli.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Milan a clear edge as the home side, though not an overwhelming one.

The 50% figure for Milan is the single most likely outcome, but it's far from a sure thing: combining the draw and the away win, there's a 50% chance Bologna walks away with at least a point. The expected goals point in the same direction, with 1.55 for Milan and 0.93 for Bologna, an estimated total of 2.48 goals in the match. These figures come from our own model, it's worth repeating, not from a sportsbook's odds. The broader trends back up that measured forecast: a 46% probability the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance both teams score.

With Milan still unbeaten in the league and Bologna in need of points away from home, the Meazza is set for a match where the home side's favorite status is real, but far from absolute.