Minnesota United rallies late to beat San Jose Earthquakes 3-1

It was down at halftime, let the score get tied late, and ended up winning with a goal in stoppage time. That was the strange path Minnesota United FC took to a 3-1 win over the San Jose Earthquakes at Allianz Field, a result that, when you just look at the final score, doesn't tell half the story.

San Jose had taken the lead right before the break, just when it looked like the first half would end scoreless. Preston Judd finished with his right foot from the center of the box after a through ball from Niko Tsakiris in the 44th minute, and the Earthquakes went into the locker room ahead despite a fairly even first half. Before that goal, there were warning signs from both sides: a shot from Morris Duggan in the 2nd minute that sailed high, a chance for Ronaldo Vieira in the 17th minute for the visitors, and a header from Jefferson Diaz that grazed the crossbar in the 34th minute.

The response and the late turnaround

Minnesota needed just eleven minutes of the second half to level things. In the 56th minute, Tomas Chancalay scored the equalizer with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, finishing off a counterattack set up by Joaquin Pereyra. The game opened up from there, and the home side, which had been pushing, finally found a way in front in the 81st minute: a shot from Nectarios Triantis hit the post, and the rebound ended up in the net off an own goal by San Jose Earthquakes goalkeeper Angus Gunn, making it 2-1.

With the match already in stoppage time, which ran to five minutes, Triantis struck again to seal it: in the 93rd minute, he finished with his right foot from the center of the box, set up by Morris Duggan, for the final 3-1.

What the numbers say

The stats show an even match in terms of ball control, but a clear edge for Minnesota United FC in attacking output, especially on corner kicks.

In our own expected goals estimate based on the match's shots, Minnesota United generated 1.129 and the San Jose Earthquakes 1.29, fairly close figures that match how even the game was, though the final scoreline ended up being more comfortable for the home side than those numbers would suggest.

Our preview published before the match gave Minnesota United a 44% chance of winning, 25% for a draw, and 31% in favor of the San Jose Earthquakes, with expected goals of 1.86 for the home side and 1.57 for the visitors, a total of 3.43. The final result, with four goals on the board and a comeback to boot, ended up lining up with the favoritism we gave the home team, though the way it played out (falling behind at halftime and flipping the whole thing in the second half) was a lot more chaotic than any percentage could have predicted.

What it means in the standings

In the Western Conference, the San Jose Earthquakes came into this match sitting fourth with 52 points from 34 games played (14 wins, 10 draws, 10 losses), while Minnesota United FC sat tenth with 44 points from the same number of games (11 wins, 11 draws, 12 losses). The gap between the two sides before this match was 8 points, and the Minnesota United FC win lets it close the distance on a direct rival in the middle of the table.

At the final whistle, what remains is the image of a Minnesota United FC side that didn't shrink after falling behind and ended up putting the game away with two goals in the final twelve minutes, one of them deep into stoppage time, to grab a result that looked like it was slipping away midway through the second half.