Minnesota United hosts San Jose with momentum on its side despite the gap in the standings

With an 11-point gap in the Western Conference table, the numbers suggest San Jose Earthquakes arrive at Allianz Field as the stronger side. But Minnesota United's recent form strips away any notion of a routine outing in this MLS clash.

Minnesota sits 12th with a record of 10 wins, 11 draws and 12 losses in 33 games played, scoring 53 goals and conceding 57. The numbers aren't pretty, but the present tells a different story: over its last five matches, the club has racked up three wins and two draws without a single loss. San Jose, meanwhile, sits third in the Western Conference with 14 wins, 10 draws and 9 losses (56 goals scored, 48 allowed), though it arrives with less steam, having managed just one win, three draws and a loss in its last five outings.

Looking at Minnesota's home performance in the 2026 MLS season (a sample of 16 games, separate from the overall season record), the club averages 1.382 goals scored and 1.32 allowed per game, with a 25% clean sheet rate and its strongest scoring stretch between the 61st and 75th minutes. On the other side, San Jose on the road this season (also 16 games) averages 1.629 goals scored and 1.382 allowed, with just a 19% clean sheet rate and a tendency to strike early, within the first 15 minutes.

The names that matter

Kelvin Yeboah stands out as Minnesota's top offensive threat at home in that sample, with 18 goals, followed by Anthony Markanich (9) and Marcus Caldeira (7). For San Jose, Preston Judd leads the way on the road with 16 goals, joined by Ousseni Bouda (7) and Timo Werner (6).

The head-to-head record also tilts in the home side's favor: of the 8 matches played, Minnesota has won 5, there have been 2 draws, and San Jose has won just once, with Minnesota outscoring San Jose 18 to 9 over that span.

Possible lineups

Minnesota's likely starting eleven, rated with medium reliability based on recent matches, would feature Drake Callender in goal, a back line of Cherrion Valerius, Morris Duggan, Jefferson Diaz and Anthony Markanich, a midfield of Owen Gene, Bongokuhle Hlongwane, Mauricio Gonzalez and Nectarios Triantis, and Kelvin Yeboah paired with Aziel Jackson up top.

San Jose, with a lineup rated low reliability, could go with Angus Gunn in net, a defensive line of Reid Roberts, Dave Romney, Daniel Munie and Jack Jasinski, a midfield of Beau Leroux, Jamar Ricketts, Timo Werner and Ronaldo Vieira, and Preston Judd alongside Ousseni Bouda leading the attack.

What the numbers say

Our model projects the following probabilities for this match:

These figures don't point to a clear favorite: Minnesota's 44% is the highest mark, but it's far from a sure thing, and the combined probability of a draw or an away win tops 50%. This is our own model's estimate, not a betting line. The expected goals figures back up that tight reading: 1.86 for Minnesota against 1.57 for San Jose, a combined total of 3.43 that lines up with the 50% probability our model assigns to the match going over 2.5 total goals, along with a 61% chance that both teams find the net.

With the gap in the standings offset by each team's current form, Allianz Field is set to host a far more even contest than the table alone would indicate.