Moldova stuns Kazakhstan 2-1 in Nations League upset

Moldova left Astana Arena with a 2-1 win over Kazakhstan in a group C3 UEFA Nations League match that was settled in just four minutes to start the second half, as Moldova went from a one-goal lead to a two-goal cushion before the home side could respond.

The first half had been even on the scoreboard but not so much on the clock: with little time left before the break, Nicky Clescenco popped up on the left side of the box and finished low with his right foot, just inside the left post, making it 0-1 right at the 45th minute. Kazakhstan went into the locker room down despite creating chances through the first half hour, with shots from Elkhan Astanov, Ramazan Orazov and Yan Vorogovskiy failing to find the target.

The story could have changed at the start of the second half, but Moldova struck first. Barely into the restart, a corner kick from Sergiu Perciun found the head of Petru Popescu, who powered it in from point blank range through the middle to make it 0-2 in the 49th minute. The home side, which had been controlling possession and territory, suddenly found itself needing to claw back a two-goal deficit.

Kazakhstan did not fold and found a way back fourteen minutes later. Off a free kick taken by Bauyrzhan Islamkhan, who whipped a cross into the box, Nuraly Alip headed home from the center of the area into the top right corner to make it 1-2 in the 63rd minute. It was the last goal of the night: neither the home side, which kept pushing with crosses and shots from outside the box, nor Moldova, which looked to counter on several occasions, could change the scoreline again.

What the numbers say

Kazakhstan comfortably controlled the ball, with 65.3% possession and nearly double the passes of its opponent, but could not turn that dominance into sharpness in front of goal. Moldova, with less of the ball, was more efficient in the final third.

The shots on target number sums up the match fairly well: Kazakhstan fired off more shots overall, 19 to 16, but Moldova was far more accurate in hitting the target, 8 to 4. According to our post-match xG estimate based on the shots taken, Kazakhstan generated 1.625 expected goals to Moldova's 0.866, a figure suggesting the home side may have deserved a bit more than the final score reflected, though it was not enough to overturn the deficit.

The projection we published before the match gave Kazakhstan a 52% chance of winning, against 20% for Moldova and 28% for a draw, with expected goals of 1.60 for the home side and 0.92 for the visitors. The result went against that forecast: the favorite ended up losing, and it was Moldova who took home all three points despite entering as the side with the lower odds according to our model.

Where the table stands

In group C3, Moldova moved to 4 points with this win, while Kazakhstan remained on 1. The gap between the two sides in the standings now stands at 3 points. For the home side, which could not capitalize on its control of the ball, the result leaves a sense of a missed opportunity. For Moldova, the two goals in four minutes to open the second half proved to be the key to a result that, on paper beforehand, was far from the most likely outcome.