Monterrey Hosts San Luis with the Numbers on Its Side: Ocampos Looks to Extend Scoring Streak

Lucas Ocampos already has 5 goals this tournament, and on Sunday he'll face the worst road defense in Liga MX right now: Atletico San Luis, which has managed just 3 points through five matches. Estadio BBVA hosts a game that looks like a formality for Monterrey, though in soccer nothing is settled before the ball starts rolling.

Monterrey sits ninth with 9 points, the product of three wins and two losses in five outings, with a goal difference of plus 5 (12 scored, 7 allowed). Over the last five matches the club has racked up four wins and just one loss, a run that lines up with the strong form of Ocampos and Diego Rossi, the team's second-leading scorer with 2 goals. The Monterrey side averages 2.4 goals scored per game and tends to do its damage between the 16th and 30th minutes.

On the other side, the picture is far tougher. Atletico San Luis sits 16th with just 3 points and no wins this tournament: three draws and two losses, with a difference of minus 4 (5 goals scored, 9 allowed). The club hasn't won any of its last five matches, going three losses and two draws, and its most frequent scoring window doesn't open until the start of the second half (46th to 60th minute). Rafa Llorente is the team's top offensive threat with 2 goals, still short of the pace this club needs to climb out of the lower half of the table.

The gap between the two sides in the standings is 6 points, and the recent head-to-head record also favors the home side: of 8 meetings, Monterrey has won 4, there's been 1 draw, and Atletico San Luis has won 3, with a combined scoring tally of 15 to 9 in favor of the hosts.

Probable Lineups

Monterrey's expected XI, rated medium reliability by our projections, has Luis Cardenas in goal, a back line of Victor Guzman, Ricardo Chavez, Gerardo Arteaga and Jorge Rodriguez, a midfield featuring Ocampos, Orbelin Pineda, Diego Rossi, Jesus Corona and Oliver Torres, with Hugo Cuypers leading the line up top.

For Atletico San Luis, also rated medium reliability, the projected lineup has Andres Sanchez between the posts, with Miguel Garcia, Eduardo Aguila and Benjamin Galindo on defense, Oscar Macias, Roman Torres and Lucas Esteves in midfield, and an attacking trio battling for spots featuring Sebastien Salles-Lamonge, David Rodriguez, Felipe Mora and Rafa Llorente.

What the Numbers Say

Our model, built on this season's trends, gives Monterrey a 60% chance of winning, 22% for a draw, and 18% for an Atletico San Luis victory. It's a clear gap, though not an overwhelming one: the visitors aren't ruled out of picking up something in Monterrey.

Those expected goals figures, an in-house estimate rather than an official stat, also back up a 60% probability of the match going over 2.5 total goals, and a 48% chance both teams find the net. With the Monterrey attack in good form and the San Luis defense having been shredded in several matches, conditions look set for Monterrey to try to widen its gap in the standings in front of its home fans.