Napoli host Como looking to keep perfect Serie A start alive

Napoli arrives at the Diego Armando Maradona with a perfect record so far: one win, zero goals conceded and a 100% clean sheet rate in Serie A this season. Across the pitch will be Como, which hasn't tasted defeat yet either, but hasn't found a win, with a draw as its only result so far. With just one match played by each side, any reading of the table has to be taken with caution, but the contrast in form between the two clubs is real.

Napoli is scoring 2 goals per game and hasn't conceded any yet, with its most productive stretch coming late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. Antonio Vergara and Kevin De Bruyne are the club's top scorers so far this season, with one goal apiece. Over the last five matches (a sample that also includes games from before this league campaign), Napoli has racked up three wins, one draw and one loss, closing out that stretch with three straight victories that underline the team's strong form.

Como, on the other hand, is split right down the middle: one goal scored and one conceded in its only match, and a 0% clean sheet rate that shows it hasn't managed to keep things tight at the back yet this league season. Its goals have typically come right at the start of the second half, between the 46th and 60th minutes. Tasos Douvikas is the team's main attacking threat, with one goal to his name. In the shorter five-game sample, Como has one win, three draws and one loss, a run of tight results that leaves the club in 10th place, two points behind fifth-place Napoli.

The head-to-head record between the two sides doesn't point to a clear trend either: in 5 previous meetings, Napoli has won 1, there have been 3 draws and Como has won 1, with Napoli scoring 5 goals to the Lombard club's 4. It's an even history that lines up with how both teams have looked so far this season.

Possible lineups

Napoli could take the field with Alex Meret in goal, a back line of Amir Rrahmani, Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Alessandro Buongiorno, Stanislav Lobotka, Scott McTominay and Miguel Gutierrez in midfield, and Alisson Santos, Rasmus Hojlund and Matteo Politano up front. This is a projected lineup based on recent matches, with medium confidence.

Como, in a projected lineup with low confidence, could line up with Jean Butez in goal, Jacobo Ramon, Marc Oliver Kempf, Alex Valle and Yan Couto across the back, Martin Baturina, Massimo Perrone, Lucas da Cunha, Assane Diao and Jesus Rodriguez in midfield, and Tasos Douvikas leading the attack.

What the numbers say

Our model sees Napoli as the favorite, though not by a wide margin: the gap between the three outcomes is under ten percentage points.

The expected goals numbers back up that tight outlook: 1.2 for Napoli and 1.05 for Como, for an estimated total of 2.25 goals in the match. It's worth noting this is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a firm prediction or a betting line.

With Napoli looking to extend its perfect start and Como trying to pick up its first Serie A win, the match at the Maradona figures to be more even than the names on the team sheets might suggest at first glance.