Nashville SC heavily favored as struggling Toronto FC visits GEODIS Park

Nashville SC enters this match atop the Eastern Conference with 57 points from 26 games, while Toronto FC sits in 12th place with 29 points. The 28 point gap between the two clubs already says plenty about what's expected at GEODIS Park in this round of MLS play.

B.J. Callaghan's side has posted a record of 17 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses, with 53 goals scored and 21 allowed so far this season. Over their last five matches they've gone two wins, two draws and one loss, a somewhat shakier stretch than their table position would suggest. At home in MLS play this season, across a sample of 13 games, Nashville averages 3 goals scored and under a goal allowed per match (0.92), with 39 percent of those games ending in a clean sheet. That production has a name attached to it: Sam Surridge has 16 goals in that span, followed by Hany Mukhtar with 11.

Toronto FC, coached by Robin Fraser, carries a very different record: 6 wins, 11 draws and 9 losses, with 39 goals scored and 49 allowed on the season. Their last five matches include two draws, one win and two straight losses, the worst stretch of either team heading into this stage of the schedule. On the road in MLS this season, across a sample of 12 games, the Canadian club is managing just 0.823 goals per match while allowing 1.755, with only 25 percent of their away trips ending scoreless for the opponent. Josh Sargent and Dániel Sallói share the offensive load with 7 goals apiece in that sample.

The head to head record isn't balanced either: in 8 meetings, Nashville has won 4, there have been 2 draws and Toronto has taken 2, with a combined goal tally of 12 for the home side against 9 for the visitors.

Projected Lineups

Nashville SC would likely start with Brian Schwake in goal; a back four of Maxwell Woledzi, Jeisson Palacios, Andy Nájar and Reed Baker-Whiting; a midfield of Hany Mukhtar, Cristian Espinoza, Patrick Yazbek, Elias Saad and Matthew Corcoran; and Sam Surridge leading the line. This is a projected lineup based on recent matches, with high confidence.

Toronto FC, by that same logic, would line up with Luka Gavran between the posts; a back line of Benjamín Kuscevic, Richie Laryea, Walker Zimmerman and Matheus Pereira; a midfield of Alonso Coello, Dániel Sallói, Derrick Etienne, Markus Cimermancic and Niklas Dorsch; and Josh Sargent up top.

What the Numbers Say

Our model, built on this season's trends, points to a clear favorite in the home side:

This is our own projection, not a betting line, but the message is clear: Nashville goes in as a heavy favorite, with a 65 percent chance of winning compared to 12 percent for Toronto and 23 percent for a draw. Add to that the broader match trends, with a 76 percent chance of more than 2.5 goals and a 67 percent chance both teams find the net.

With the conference lead already locked up and an attack that performs especially well at GEODIS Park, Nashville has every reason to expect another home win. Toronto arrives bruised by back to back losses and will need more than the numbers to pull off an upset.