MLS Leaders Nashville SC Head to Toronto FC as 52% Favorites

MLS's top team heads into BMO Field carrying the conference's best defense, while Toronto FC, stuck in the bottom half of the table, needs more than draws to climb out of that uncomfortable zone. The two sides meet in MLS action, and the contrast between these two rosters shows up in every line of the standings.

Toronto FC sits 11th with 26 points, the product of 5 wins, 11 draws and 7 losses in 23 matches, with 36 goals scored and 42 allowed. That number of draws, 11, weighs heavily: over the last five matches the club has picked up two wins and three draws without a single loss, a points streak that hasn't quite translated into a real climb up the table. Nashville SC, on the other hand, leads the East with 53 points, backed by 16 wins, 5 draws and just 2 losses, with a goal differential of 30 (47 scored, 17 allowed). In its last five matches, Nashville won four and drew one, without a single defeat. The gap between the two clubs in the standings sits at 27 points, which already says plenty about where each team stands right now.

The season trends, though, need to be looked at separately. At home in the 2026 MLS season, Toronto has scored and conceded an average of 2.07 goals per match across 13 games, without a single clean sheet, and its most productive stretch comes between minutes 76 and 90. Nashville, on the road, shows a completely different profile: 1.004 goals scored and only 0.46 allowed per match across 11 away games, with clean sheets in 64% of those matches, and its best scoring stretch between minutes 31 and 45. These are samples from this season and this specific home or away split, not the tournament's overall record, but they paint a clear picture: Nashville defends well on the road, and Toronto tends to get stretched open in home matches.

Up front, the names to watch are familiar ones. Josh Sargent (7 goals) and Daniel Sallói (6) lead the home team's production in that home-game sample, while Sam Surridge (13) and Hany Mukhtar (10) are the ones carrying the visiting attack in their away matches.

Recent history favors Nashville

Of the 8 matches played between these two clubs, Nashville SC has won 4, Toronto FC 2, with 2 draws, and a combined goal tally of 12 to 9 in favor of the Tennessee club. It's a trend that lines up with the difference in form both sides are showing this season.

Projected lineups

Toronto FC is expected to line up, according to a probable lineup rated as high reliability, with Luka Gavran in goal; Richie Laryea, Walker Zimmerman, Benjamín Kuscevic and Kobe Franklin across the back; Theo Corbeanu, Markus Cimermancic, Djordje Mihailovic, Daniel Sallói and Alonso Coello in midfield, and Josh Sargent leading the attack. For Nashville, in a lineup projection rated as low reliability, expect Brian Schwake in goal; Reed Baker-Whiting, Maxwell Woledzi, Jeisson Palacios and Andy Nájar across the back line; Hany Mukhtar, Cristian Espinoza, Elias Saad, Edvard Tagseth and Patrick Yazbek in midfield, with Sam Surridge up top.

What the numbers say

Our in-house model tilts the scale toward Nashville SC with a 52% probability, compared to 20% for Toronto FC and 28% for a draw. It's not an overwhelming edge, but it is a clear advantage for the visitors, one that lines up with this projection's expected goals: 0.92 for Toronto and 1.60 for Nashville, for a total of 2.52. Additional trends point to a 48% probability of more than 2.5 goals and a 55% chance both teams find the net. All of this is an in-house projection, not a betting line.

With the league leader arriving in great form and a Toronto side that needs more than draws to dig itself out of its current rut, BMO Field will host a clear test of the pecking order within the Eastern Conference this afternoon.