Necaxa misses penalty, hits the post and lets victory slip away in 1-1 draw with Juárez

A missed penalty, a shot off the post and a draw that leaves Necaxa more frustrated than Juárez: at Estadio Victoria, the home side settled for a 1-1 that felt like a missed opportunity after going ahead and having the chance to make it 2-0, a goal that would have changed the entire complexion of the match.

The hosts opened the scoring in the 25th minute: Owen González finished with his right foot from the center of the box, curling the ball into the top right corner, a brilliant goal that had to go through a VAR review before being confirmed. Before that, Juárez had already given a warning sign when Madson's shot crashed off the post in the 23rd minute, a clear signal that this wasn't going to be an easy night for either side.

The story could have gone very differently at the start of the second half. Just moments after the restart, in the 49th minute, Daniel Piña committed a handball penalty inside the box. Julián Carranza stepped up to take it, but his right-footed attempt was saved low, and the chance to put the game away was gone. Necaxa went into the second half up 1-0, but with that missed opportunity still weighing on them.

Juárez, who never backed down, finally got their reward in the 81st minute. Following a corner kick, Daniel Piña set up Luca Martínez Dupuy, who finished from close range with his right foot, low and inside the left post, to make it 1-1, the final score. The rest of the match saw more attempts, with Emilio Rodríguez and Miguel Pedroza testing the visiting goalkeeper in the closing minutes, but the scoreboard didn't move again.

What the numbers say

The stats confirm it was an even contest, with Juárez even edging the home side in terms of overall volume despite not coming away with the win.

According to our expected goals estimate calculated from the shots taken in the match, Necaxa generated 3.20 xG compared to 1.99 for Juárez, a gap that speaks to the clear-cut chances the home side left behind, starting with the missed penalty, on their way to failing to take all three points.

Our pre-match preview gave Necaxa a 48% chance of winning, against 27% for Juárez and 25% for a draw, with combined expected goals of 3.26 (1.89 for the home side and 1.38 for the visitors). The final result, with points shared, ended up closer to the less likely scenario on paper, though the way the match unfolded, with Necaxa dominating in scoring chances and that missed penalty looming large, shows the home side did enough to deserve more.

What it means for the standings

In the Liga MX table, this draw doesn't change much for either side. Necaxa remains in 17th place with 10 points from 14 matches played (2 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses), while Juárez sits in 18th with 5 points from the same number of games (1 win, 2 draws and 11 losses). The gap between the two sides is 5 points, and both still need wins to pull away from the bottom of the table.

In the end, the match leaves a feeling of a missed opportunity for Necaxa, who held the lead for more than an hour and couldn't hold on, and a point that Juárez will happily take given how much they had to push in the final minutes to level the score.