Necaxa and Juárez Collide at the Bottom of the Liga MX Table

The bottom of the Liga MX table has a name and a surname: Necaxa and Juárez meet at Estadio Victoria sitting in 17th and 18th place, respectively. Necaxa has 9 points through 13 matches; Juárez has just 4. This isn't a fight to climb out of the basement, it's a fight to avoid sinking even further.

Necaxa's numbers so far this tournament are grim: 2 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses, with 15 goals scored and 26 allowed. Recent form only makes things worse, since the club has lost four of its last five matches and drawn the other one, without a single win. Juárez, managed by Gustavo Lema, arrives in an even more precarious spot: 1 win, 1 draw and 11 losses on the season, with just 8 goals scored against 32 allowed, the worst goal difference in the entire table. Over its last five matches, Juárez has managed one win, one draw and three losses.

There's a piece of context worth examining carefully, without blending it into the numbers above: in the 2026 Liga MX season, playing at home, Necaxa has averaged 1.151 goals scored and 2.006 allowed per match across a sample of 7 games, with no clean sheets, and its most productive scoring stretch comes between the 76th and 90th minutes. Julián Carranza stands as the club's top scorer in that sample, with 7 goals. On the other side, Juárez, in that same season and playing on the road, has averaged just 0.498 goals scored against 3.337 allowed across 6 matches, also without a single clean sheet, and tends to score most often between the 31st and 45th minutes. Óscar Estupiñán tops its scoring chart in that situation, with 6 goals.

What the History Shows

The head-to-head record clearly favors Necaxa: of the 8 matches played between the two clubs, Necaxa has won 3, there have been 5 draws and Juárez has never come out on top. In total goals, Necaxa has scored 13 to Juárez's 8.

Possible Lineups

For Necaxa, the likely starting eleven (an estimate with low reliability based on recent matches) looks set to feature Agustín Oliveros, Diego Ochoa, Kaiky Naves and Emilio Martínez across the back line, Pedro Pedraza, Danny Leyva, Emilio Rodríguez, Matías Espíndola, Owen González and Lorenzo Faravelli in midfield, and Julián Carranza as the lone reference up top.

Juárez, with a lineup projection of medium reliability, would have Sebastián Jurado in goal; Gilberto Sepúlveda, Jesús Murillo, Denzell García and Daniel Piña on defense; Francisco Nevárez, Leonardo Rodríguez, Ricardinho, José Luis Rodríguez and Monchu in midfield; and Óscar Estupiñán leading the attack.

Odds

Our model projects a tighter match than the standings would suggest, though still with a slight edge for the home side:

The expected goals figures back up that read: 1.89 for Necaxa versus 1.38 for Juárez, for a combined total of 3.26. This is our own estimate, based on the season's trends, and should not be taken as a firm prediction or as betting odds. On top of that, the model puts the chances of the match going over 2.5 goals at 77%, though only 36% for both teams to score.

With two of the most leaky defenses in the tournament and a home team that hasn't shown any solidity at the back during the 2026 season, this matchup at Estadio Victoria looks like it will be decided wherever the ball is handled with the least care.