New York City FC hosts a CF Montreal side in crisis, with the model on its side

Citi Field hosts a matchup that looks like a clash near the bottom of the Eastern Conference: New York City FC, 12th with 38 points, against a CF Montreal side sitting 15th, second to last, with just 25 points. Neither team arrives in good form, but the urgency is not the same for both.

The home side has put together a record of 9 wins, 11 draws and 12 losses in 32 matches so far this season, with 47 goals scored and 44 allowed: even numbers for a team that is neither sinking nor taking off. Over its last five matches it posted two losses, two draws and a win, closing with a victory that at least stopped the bleeding. Montreal, meanwhile, has one of the worst records in the league: 6 wins, 7 draws and 19 losses in 32 games, with a minus-30 goal differential built on 36 goals scored against 66 allowed. In its last five it has not won a single game: two draws and three losses, the most recent coming right before this trip to New York.

Looking at NYCFC's home form in MLS this season (a sample of 16 matches, different from the overall record), the club averages 1.82 goals scored and 1.44 allowed per game, with clean sheets in just 19 percent of matches and its most productive stretch between the 16th and 30th minutes. Nicolas Fernandez Mercau leads the scoring chart in that sample with 16 goals, followed by Hannes Wolf and Agustin Ojeda. On the other side, Montreal on the road (also over 16 matches) has a much tougher record: 1.06 goals scored and 2.68 allowed per game, with clean sheets in just 6 percent of matches, though the team tends to open the scoring in the first 15 minutes. Prince Owusu tops that list with 15 goals, trailed by Daniel Rios and Wiki Carmona.

The all-time series between the two sides is even on paper: of 8 matches, NYCFC has won 4 and Montreal has won 4, with no draws, and the New Yorkers hold an 8-6 edge in goals scored.

Probable lineups

For NYCFC, with high confidence in the projection, the expected XI features Matt Freese in goal, a back line of Thiago Martins, James Sands, Tayvon Gray and Kevin O'Toole, a midfield of Andres Perea, Agustin Ojeda, Nicolas Fernandez Mercau, Hannes Wolf and Aiden O'Neill, with Alonso Martinez as the focal point up front. It is a lineup that has stayed nearly the same over the last six matches.

Montreal, with lower confidence in the projection, would likely field Sebastian Breza in goal, a defense of Dawid Bugaj, Brayan Vera, Luca Petrasso, Jalen Neal, Brandan Craig and Efrain Alvarez, Matty Longstaff and Victor Loturi in midfield, and a front two of Daniel Rios and Alexis Sanchez.

What the numbers say

Our model gives NYCFC a clear, though not overwhelming, edge: a 59 percent chance of winning compared to 16 percent for Montreal and a 25 percent chance of a draw. The expected goals figures back up that read, with 1.83 for the home side against 0.86 for the visitors, a combined total of 2.69. It is worth noting this is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line. Additional trends also point to an open match: a 69 percent chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46 percent chance of both teams scoring.

With a Montreal side that has not won in a while and an NYCFC team looking to right the ship at home, the match at Citi Field has all the ingredients to be decided by fine margins, even as the numbers tilt in the home side's favor.