New York Red Bulls host Nashville SC in a clash of contrasts: MLS leaders against eighth place

Sports Illustrated Stadium hosts a matchup with clear contrasts in the MLS standings: New York Red Bulls, eighth in the Eastern Conference, against Nashville SC, leaders of that same table. The points gap between the two sides is 18, a gulf that reflects two very different seasons and gives the game a particular appeal, even though neither side is playing in a final or a knockout tie here.

How they arrive

The Red Bulls have posted a record of 7 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in 19 matches this season, with 30 goals scored and 41 allowed, a negative goal difference of -11 that weighs on their standing. Over their last five games they've collected two wins and three losses, an inconsistent stretch that confirms the team's defensive troubles: they're conceding an average of 2.006 goals per game and have kept a clean sheet in just 11 percent of their outings. Offensively they lean on Julian Hall, their top scorer with 9 goals, followed by Jorge Ruvalcaba with 7 and Emil Forsberg with 3.

Nashville, on the other hand, is having a strong campaign: 13 wins, 4 draws and just 2 losses in 19 games, with 39 goals scored and only 15 allowed, the best goal difference in the conference. Over their last five matches they've gone two wins, a draw and two losses, a more modest run than the overall dominance of their season. Their defensive solidity stands out: they've kept a clean sheet in 56 percent of their games and are conceding fewer than a goal per match (0.549). Sam Surridge leads the attack with 12 goals, joined by Hany Mukhtar with 8 and Warren Madrigal with 5.

The head to head

In the eight previous meetings between the two clubs, New York Red Bulls have won 3, Nashville 1, with 4 draws. The aggregate goal tally favors the home side, 7 to 3, though that history says little about where each squad stands right now.

Possible lineups

The Red Bulls' likely XI, rated medium reliability based on recent matches, would have Ethan Horvath in goal, a back line with Justin Che, Dylan Nealis, Julián Bazán and Matthew Dos Santos, a midfield with Ronald Donkor, Emil Forsberg and Adri Mehmeti, and a front three of Julian Hall, Cade Cowell and Jorge Ruvalcaba.

On Nashville's side, with an estimated low reliability, the probable lineup would feature Brian Schwake between the posts, a back line with Andy Nájar, Maxwell Woledzi, Jeisson Palacios, Reed Baker-Whiting and Josh Bauer, a midfield with Matthew Corcoran, Elias Saad and Edvard Tagseth, and up top the duo of Hany Mukhtar and Sam Surridge.

Odds

The model gives Nashville a 45 percent chance of winning, a reasonable favorite tag given their consistency, but not an overwhelming one: the gap between the three outcomes isn't huge, and the draw sits close behind at 28 percent, nearly matching the home win at 27 percent. The expected goals figures back up that moderate forecast too: 1.16 for the Red Bulls and 1.56 for Nashville, for an estimated total of 2.72 goals. These figures are an in-house estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line. Additional trends point to a 44 percent chance the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 37 percent chance both teams score.

With Nashville looking to reaffirm its hold on first place and the Red Bulls in need of points to climb the Eastern Conference table, the matchup promises intensity from the opening whistle in Harrison.