Newport County and Walsall meet in the FA Cup with no clear favorite

Rodney Parade hosts an FA Cup tie between Newport County and Walsall, two sides arriving without much recent momentum and a head-to-head record that's fairly even despite the goal difference between them.

Newport, managed by Hayden Mullins, come in with mixed results: in their last five matches they've picked up two wins, one draw and two losses, with a loss and a draw as the two most recent results in that run. Lee Grant's Walsall show an almost identical record over that same stretch: two wins, one draw and two losses, closing out with a draw in their most recent match. Neither side, then, arrives in clearly better form than the other.

As for trends specific to this season's FA Cup run, they should be taken with caution since the sample sizes are very small. Newport, across just two matches played home and away in the competition this season, haven't kept a clean sheet in either and tend to score in the second half of the first period, between the 31st and 45th minutes; Cameron Evans stands out as their top scorer in that sample, with one goal. Walsall, for their part, show better numbers on the road in this season's FA Cup: in three away matches they're averaging 2 goals scored and 1.667 conceded per game, with 67% of those matches ending with a clean sheet, and they tend to score between the 46th and 60th minutes. Courtney Clarke is their top scorer in that sample, with one goal.

The head-to-head record doesn't point to a clear favorite on paper either: in 8 matches played, Walsall have won 4, there have been 3 draws and Newport have won 1, with an aggregate score of 10 to 13 in favor of the visitors.

Probable lineups

Mullins could stick with a familiar setup for Newport, with Jordan Wright in goal and Harrison Biggins as one of the regulars in midfield, alongside names like Lee Jenkins, Cameron Evans or James Crole up front. This is an estimated lineup, with low reliability according to the projection itself, so it could change in several spots.

For Walsall, Lee Grant is expected to field a back line with Mason Hancock, Harrison Burke and Aden Flint, with Albert Adomah a regular presence in midfield and Daniel Kanu as the main attacking reference. This is also a probable lineup, inferred from recent matches and not officially confirmed.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model shows a fairly tight spread of probabilities, with a slight lean toward the visitors:

The draw and the home win combined add up to more than Walsall's win probability on its own, so there's no commanding favorite here: the 42% for the visitors is the most likely single outcome, but it's far from a sure thing. Expected goals, another in-house estimate, point to an evenly matched game with scoring chances for both sides: 1.08 for Newport and 1.36 for Walsall, for a projected total of 2.45. It's worth remembering these figures are an in-house projection and not betting odds.

With the numbers this balanced and so little separating the two sides in recent form, the match at Rodney Parade looks set to come down to the small details: a turnover, a set piece, or a sharp finish in the minutes when each team tends to do its damage.