NYCFC Dominates but Falls to New England Revolution on Stoppage-Time Goal

New York City FC controlled the ball, the field and nearly the entire match, but left Citi Field empty-handed. New England Revolution took home all three points with a 2-1 result that was decided in stoppage time, right when a draw already looked like a fair outcome for the hosts.

The blow came early. In the 9th minute, a handball by Aiden O'Neill inside the box led to a penalty, and Carles Gil made no mistake, striking with his left foot to the right side of the net to make it 0-1 in the 11th minute. It was the first jolt of a match that, for the rest of the first half, saw more back and forth than goals: Benie Traore and Nicolas Fernandez Mercau tried their luck for New York City FC without beating Matt Turner. In the second half the home side kept pushing, and the persistence paid off in the 70th minute: Luighi finished with his left foot from close range, after an assist from Fernandez Mercau, for the 1-1 equalizer. The draw seemed to be writing the ending of the match.

But New England Revolution had their own scare late on. In the 84th minute, Daniel Gazdag thought he had put his side back in front, but VAR overturned the goal after review. New York City FC's relief, however, didn't last long: in stoppage time, in the 92nd minute, Gazdag himself struck again, this time with no dispute, finishing with his right foot off a cross from Ilay Feingold to make it a final 1-2.

Dominance That Wasn't Enough

The numbers tell a story of control that didn't translate on the scoreboard. New York City FC held 65.4 percent of possession and fired off 18 shots to the visitors' 11, while also generating 12 corners to New England Revolution's 4. Still, shots on target were dead even at 6 apiece, and in the clearest chances the visitors had the edge.

The xG generated in the match, an in-house estimate calculated from shot locations, backs up that reading: 1.542 for New York City FC against 2.304 for New England Revolution. Despite having more volume of play, the home side failed to create the most dangerous chances, and the visitors converted theirs with surgical efficiency.

The result also contrasts with what we projected before the match: our model gave New York City FC a 48 percent chance of winning, 27 percent for a draw and only 25 percent for New England Revolution, with expected goals of 1.67 for the home side and 1.17 for the visitors. What happened was exactly the opposite of the most likely outcome: the team with fewer chances on paper won.

What It Means in the Standings

In the Eastern Conference, the win puts New England Revolution in third place with 40 points, the product of 12 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in 24 matches played. New York City FC, meanwhile, sits in ninth place with 29 points, after 7 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in the same number of matches. The gap between the two in the standings stands at 11 points, a gap that Sunday's match only confirmed, even if the play on the field told a different story.