New York City FC and New England Revolution meet at Citi Field with different needs on the line

New York City FC hasn't won in three games and comes in with three straight draws weighing on it, while New England Revolution has been swinging between results: loss, win, draw, win and loss in its last five. At Citi Field, the two sides meet in MLS with the Eastern Conference table in play and eight points separating them.

City sits seventh with 29 points, the product of 7 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in 23 games, with 36 goals scored and 31 allowed. That number of draws explains much of its season: picking up points steadily but without the consistency to climb the standings. New England, meanwhile, is fourth with 37 points, built on 11 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses, with 37 goals scored and 29 conceded. Those are the numbers of a team that wins more than it draws, a profile that contrasts sharply with the home side's.

Recent form paints a picture similar to what those overall numbers suggest. City has racked up two losses and three draws in its last five matches, without a single win in that stretch. Revolution isn't going through its best moment either: two wins, a draw and two losses over the same span, a sign that neither club arrives brimming with confidence.

It's also worth looking at each team's season-long trends by venue, though these are a separate sample and shouldn't be confused with the overall league record. Playing at home in the 2026 MLS season, New York City FC averages 2.089 goals scored and 1.495 allowed per game across 12 matches, with a 25% clean sheet rate and its most productive scoring window between the 16th and 30th minutes. Nicolas Fernandez Mercau is the club's top scorer in that sample with 14 goals, followed by Hannes Wolf and Agustin Ojeda with 5 each. On the visiting side, in its 11 road games this season, New England averages 1.359 goals scored and 1.631 allowed, with just a 9% clean sheet rate and its best scoring stretch between the 31st and 45th minutes. Carles Gil tops that list with 9 goals, followed by Dor Turgeman with 6 and Alhassan Yusuf with 5.

The head to head record between the two sides, across eight meetings, leans slightly in City's favor: 3 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, though the goal tally is nearly even, 7 for the home side against 8 for the visitors.

Possible lineups

With medium confidence in our projections, New York City FC could field Matt Freese in goal, with Tayvon Gray, Nico Cavallo and Max Murray across the back line, and a midfield loaded with Benie Traore, Andres Perea, James Sands, Nicolas Fernandez Mercau, Agustin Ojeda and Keaton Parks, leaving Luighi as the lone attacking reference.

For New England Revolution, with high confidence in the estimate, Matt Turner would start in goal, behind a back four of Matt Polster, Mamadou Fofana, Will Sands and Ethan Kohler, with a midfield of Peyton Miller, Carles Gil, Alhassan Yusuf, Jack Harrison and Brooklyn Raines, and Dor Turgeman up front.

What the numbers say

Our model has New York City FC as a moderate favorite to take all three points, though without an overwhelming edge over either the draw or a visiting win.

A 48% figure for the home side against 25% for the visitors leaves plenty of room for the draw, which sits at 27%, so it's not worth calling this a clear favorite. Our model also projects a combined total of 2.84 expected goals, in line with a 70% probability that the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance both teams score. All of this, in every case, is our own estimate and not a betting line.

With City needing to snap its winless run and New England looking to steady an uneven stretch, this matchup at Citi Field promises plenty of drama, everything except a predictable outcome.