Olise's 87th-minute counterattack goal lifts France past Belgium

A crossed finish from Michael Olise in the 87th minute broke what had become a stubborn deadlock at King Baudouin Stadium. Belgium 0, France 1, and with that goal came the end of a night in which the hosts held firm far longer than the run of play suggested they could. The forward, who had just come on as a substitute, finished left-footed into the bottom corner after a counterattack led by Rayan Cherki, another player who had come off the bench minutes earlier.

The scoreline tells only part of the story. France controlled the ball from start to finish, with 64.6 percent possession, and created chance after chance without the ball wanting to go in. Désiré Doué rattled the crossbar as early as the 11th minute, and throughout the match Estéban Lepaul, Bradley Barcola, Maghnes Akliouche and Lucas da Cunha all tested their luck, with da Cunha also hitting the post in the 52nd minute. Belgium, less comfortable on the ball, defended with discipline and found its own moments of danger through Kevin De Bruyne and, in the second half, Dodi Lukébakio, who fired twice from similar positions without beating the French goalkeeper.

How the deadlock was broken

The match looked headed for a scoreless draw until, deep in stoppage time territory, France finally found the space it had been chasing for 87 minutes. Cherki, freshly introduced, threaded a pass through at pace and Olise, also just on the field, finished by the Belgian goalkeeper's left post. It was the one sequence Belgium could not contain in a closing stretch already shaped by fresh legs on both sides: Nicolas Raskin and Matias Fernandez-Pardo had entered just three minutes earlier for the hosts, and Fernandez-Pardo still had a shot blocked in stoppage time, by which point the result was all but decided.

The numbers back up the story

The statistics make clear the gap in control, if not in finishing. France finished with 18 shots to Belgium's 12, but converted only one of its seven shots on target. The xG generated in the match, an in-house estimate based on shot location, has France at 1.68 against Belgium's 0.635, a gap that reflects how the game actually played out beyond the final score.

Before the match we projected a home win at 51 percent probability, against 26 percent for France and 23 percent for a draw, with expected goals of 2.14 for Belgium and 1.5 for France. What happened was the opposite of the most likely outcome: France took all three points with a single goal and without needing to add another, while Belgium, despite being the favorite on paper, never generated enough danger to seriously threaten the scoreline.

What it means for Group A1

The win puts France atop Group A1 with 6 points from 2 matches, while Belgium sits second with 3, a 3-point gap between the two. Italy shares Belgium's numbers in third place, and Turkey sits at the bottom of the group without a point. With just two matchdays played, the table still says little about each team's true level, but the result of this match at King Baudouin Stadium is already starting to shape the top of the UEFA Nations League standings.