France and Belgium Battle for Top Spot in Group A1 in a Nail-Biter at the Stade de France

With just one point separating them at the top of Group A1, France and Belgium face off at the Stade de France for more than just pride: whoever wins tonight takes control of the UEFA Nations League table. France arrives as the leader with 7 points, with Belgium breathing down its neck at 6, the gap between the two sides just a single point.

France's numbers in the tournament are solid: 2 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses in 3 games played, with 3 goals scored and only 1 allowed. That said, over their last 5 matches (a sample that mixes competitions), Zinedine Zidane's side has racked up two losses, two wins and a draw, so it hasn't exactly been smooth sailing lately. Belgium, for its part, also has 2 wins and 1 loss in its 3 group games, with a more prolific attack (5 goals scored against just 1 allowed). Over their last 5 matches, Mark van Bommel's team won 3 and lost 2.

It's also worth looking at how both sides have performed in a very different sample: at the 2025 World Cup, both home and away, France averages 2.5 goals scored and 1.25 allowed per game, with clean sheets in 50% of its matches, and its most productive stretch coming between the 61st and 75th minutes. Kylian Mbappé stands as the team's top scorer in that sample with 10 goals, followed by Ousmane Dembélé with 6. Belgium, in that same competition but over a sample of 5 games, averages 2.33 goals scored and 1.17 allowed, with clean sheets in just 20% of matches and its best scoring stretch between the 76th and 90th minutes; there, Charles De Ketelaere and Romelu Lukaku share the lead with 3 goals apiece. This data comes from a different tournament and shouldn't be confused with how either side has performed in this Nations League campaign, but it helps paint a picture of both squads' offensive firepower.

The head-to-head record clearly favors France: of 8 meetings, France won 5, drew 2 and lost just 1, outscoring Belgium 12 goals to 7.

The probable lineups

For France, with a low-confidence projection, the expected XI has Mike Maignan in goal, a back line of Dayot Upamecano, Maxence Lacroix and Jules Koundé, Adrien Rabiot and Rayan Cherki in midfield, and up front Michael Olise, Désiré Doué, Ousmane Dembélé and Kylian Mbappé. For Belgium, with a medium-confidence estimate, the lineup projects Senne Lammens in goal, Brandon Mechele, Timothy Castagne, Nathan Ngoy and Maxim De Cuyper on defense, Youri Tielemans, Kevin De Bruyne, Hans Vanaken and Nicolas Raskin in midfield, with Charles De Ketelaere and Mika Godts up top.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model projects a tight game, with a slight tilt toward the home side:

With just a two percentage point gap between a home win and an away win, there's no clear favorite here: it's practically a coin flip, with the draw standing as a real third option. The expected goals figures tell a similar story, with 1.46 for France and 1.42 for Belgium, a combined total of 2.89 that lines up with the broader trends: a 65% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance both teams find the net. In every case, this is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction.

With the group lead on the line and two attacks that have been finding the net regularly, the Stade de France has all the makings of a high-scoring night.