Rwanda, riding a winning streak, hosts an inconsistent Kenya at Stade Amahoro

Stade Amahoro hosts an African continental clash between Rwanda and Kenya as part of the International Friendlies calendar. There are no points at stake and no knockout bracket on the line, but the two national teams arrive reading very differently in terms of current form.

Rwanda comes in with the wind at its back. Over its last five matches, the team has racked up four wins and just one loss, with the most recent victory capping off a three-game winning streak before that. Kenya, by contrast, arrives far more unpredictable: two wins, two draws and a loss in its last five outings, a stretch that mixes promising runs with stumbles that keep the team from truly taking off.

There is an important caveat regarding the season trend: Rwanda has posted a 100% clean sheet rate in its 2025 friendlies, though that figure comes from a sample of just one match played under those conditions, so it should be taken with caution. Kenya, with a larger sample of five friendly matches this year, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game, with a 40% clean sheet rate and a tendency to score early, within the first 15 minutes. Rwanda, for its part, tends to find the net between the 16th and 30th minutes. Among the scorers from that sample are Leroy-Jacques Mickels and Abeddy Biramahire, each with one goal, while on the Kenyan side Ryan Ogam and Mohammed Bajaber stand out with two goals apiece, along with Chrispine Erambo with one.

Likely lineups

Rwanda's probable starting eleven, projected from recent matches and flagged as low reliability, points to Fiacre Ntwari between the posts, a back line featuring Ange Mutsinzi, Claude Niyomugabo, Phanuel Kavita and Gilbert Byiringiro, a midfield with Djihad Bizimana, Bonheur Mugisha, Gilbert Mugisha, Joy-Lance Mickels and Leroy-Jacques Mickels, and Abeddy Biramahire leading the attack.

On the Kenyan side, also a low reliability projection, Byrne Omondi looks set to start in goal, with Ronney Onyango, Frank Odhiambo and Manzur Suleiman across the back, Mohammed Bajaber, Duke Abuya, Job Ochieng and Richard Odada in midfield, and a front three of Micah Obiero, Ben Stanley Omondi and Ryan Ogam up top.

What the numbers say

EnPelotas's proprietary model makes Rwanda the clear favorite for this match, though the figures are worth reading carefully before taking them as settled.

The expected goals estimate also backs up that lean: 2.32 expected goals for Rwanda compared to 0.69 for Kenya, a projected total of 3.01 goals in the match. This is an in-house estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a definitive forecast or a betting line, but the gap is wide enough that this doesn't look like an even match on paper.

With Rwanda riding a hot streak and Kenya searching for consistency, the match at Stade Amahoro will show whether those numbers translate into something concrete on the field.