Palmeiras hosts Fluminense with the edge and the favorite's tag in the semifinal second leg

The semifinal second leg at Nubank Parque arrives with the first leg already settled in Palmeiras's favor, a 2-1 road win. That's a meaningful cushion, but not a guarantee: Fluminense needs to flip the tie, and it has to do so away from home, in a stadium where Abel Ferreira has gotten plenty of mileage this Copa Libertadores.

Palmeiras is rolling. So far in the tournament it has racked up 6 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in 11 matches, with 17 goals scored and 10 allowed. And the recent form is even better: of the last five games, it won four and drew one, with no losses in that stretch. Fluminense, on the other hand, has the more balanced record (3 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in 11 games, 12 goals for and 12 against) and a rough recent run: after opening with two wins, it dropped three straight in its last five matches.

Looking at Palmeiras's home scoring output in this same 2026 Copa Libertadores (a sample of 5 matches), Abel Ferreira's side averages 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 allowed per game, with clean sheets in 20 percent of those matches, and tends to do most of its damage between the 16th and 30th minutes. Jose Manuel Lopez is the most frequent scorer in that sample, with 4 goals, followed by Jhon Arias with 3. On the other side, Fluminense on the road in this same competition (a 6-match sample) averages just 0.6 goals for against 1.2 against, with clean sheets in only 17 percent of games, and its most productive stretch comes right after halftime, between the 46th and 60th minutes. Hercules, John Kennedy and Agustin Canobbio share the top spot with 2 goals apiece in that sample.

The head-to-head record between the two doesn't point to a clear long-term favorite either: in 8 matches, Palmeiras has won 4, Fluminense 3, with one draw, and 9 goals for the Sao Paulo club against 8 for the Rio side. But what really matters today is the road each team took to get here: Palmeiras reached this stage after eliminating Cerro Porteno and LDU Quito, while Fluminense got past Independiente Rivadavia and Platense before running into Palmeiras itself in this semifinal.

Probable lineups

With medium reliability, Palmeiras would run back much of the lineup that's been piling up wins: Carlos Miguel in goal, the center-back pairing of Alexander Barboza and Gustavo Gomez (with Murilo as a regular alternative), Joaquin Piquerez, Marlon Freitas and Agustin Giay in midfield, Andreas Pereira and Lucas Evangelista as the more experienced midfield options, and up top the partnership of Jose Manuel Lopez with Jhon Arias.

Fluminense, with a low-reliability probable lineup, projects with Fabio in goal, Thiago Silva anchoring the defense alongside Julian Millan, Rene and Samuel Xavier, a midfield of Martinelli, Nonato, Agustin Canobbio, Yeferson Soteldo and Lucho Acosta, and Hulk as the main attacking reference.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Palmeiras a 54 percent chance of winning, with 28 percent for a draw and just 18 percent for Fluminense, a clear gap but not an overwhelming one for a team that's also playing at home and carries the first-leg lead. These are our own estimates, not betting odds. The model also sees a 40 percent chance the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 53 percent chance both teams score, suggesting a game with scoring chances at both ends rather than a formality.

With the aggregate lead in hand and home field on its side, Palmeiras has everything it needs to advance in this semifinal. But Fluminense has already shown along the way that it knows how to come back from tough spots, and on paper, results aren't guaranteed.