Passerini's stoppage-time winner saves Belgrano in 2-1 victory over Estudiantes Rio Cuarto

Less than a minute remained at El Gigante de Alberdi and Belgrano still hadn't scored. Estudiantes Rio Cuarto looked set to leave with a point that, given their season, would have felt like a win. But Lucas Passerini had other ideas: in the 94th minute, he pounced on a rebound off a Lucas Zelarayan free kick and buried it into the top left corner to make it 2-1. The home side took all three points, but not without sweating until the final whistle.

For nearly all of the first half, the script played out as expected: Belgrano controlled the ball while Estudiantes sat back and waited for their moment. With 62.7 percent possession, the home side moved the ball patiently, though without generating much real danger. Attempts from Federico Ricca, Franco Vazquez and Lucas Zelarayan before the break either drifted wide or were blocked at the near post. Estudiantes, for their part, held their shape with Mauro Valiente and Gabriel Alanis looking for a counterattack, but the score stayed 0-0 at halftime.

The visitors strike, and the response

The match changed completely in the second half. In the 73rd minute, just moments after coming on, Martin Garnerone struck a right-footed shot from outside the box that found the middle of the goal: 0-1 for Estudiantes Rio Cuarto, who suddenly found themselves one result away from pulling off an upset in Cordoba. The goal came just after a double substitution for the visitors and caught Belgrano somewhat off guard.

The response didn't take long. Eight minutes later, a counterattack ended with a through ball from Francisco Gonzalez Metilli to Lautaro Gutierrez, who finished left-footed from the center of the box, just inside the left post, for the 1-1 equalizer. The match opened up completely in the closing stretch: Estudiantes had their own chances to retake the lead, with Martin Garnerone and Tomas Gonzalez both trying their luck, but it was Belgrano who found the payoff in stoppage time with Passerini's goal to seal the 2-1 final.

What the numbers say

The stats reflect a match that was even in terms of clear chances, despite the home side's dominance of possession.

It's notable that Estudiantes Rio Cuarto had more total shots (16 to 15) and more big chances (3 to 1), despite managing just 37.3 percent of possession. That shows up as well in the post-match expected goals figures: 1.944 for the visitors compared to 1.571 for the home side. Those numbers are calculated after the match based on shot location, not a prediction, but they confirm that Estudiantes generated real danger despite playing with less of the ball and ending up on the losing side of the scoreline.

That reading contrasts with the pre-match projections, which gave Belgrano a 62 percent chance of winning, 29 percent for a draw and just 9 percent for a visiting win, with expected goals of 1.41 for the home side and 0.39 for Estudiantes. The final result turned out to be much tighter than that forecast, and the way the match actually played out, with Estudiantes creating more clear chances than their opponents, strayed even further from what was expected.

What it means in the standings

In Group B, Belgrano moved to 16 points from 10 matches played (4 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses) and remains among the top of the table, just one point behind Gimnasia La Plata and two behind co-leaders Argentinos Juniors and Rosario Central. Estudiantes Rio Cuarto, meanwhile, remain stuck on 6 points from 10 outings (1 win, 3 draws, 6 losses), sitting last in the group, 10 points behind Belgrano in this head-to-head comparison.

A match decided in the final minutes, with Belgrano finally finding in stoppage time what they couldn't solve for most of the second half, and an Estudiantes Rio Cuarto side that, based on what they produced, leaves with the feeling that things could have gone differently.