Pedraza own goal halts Lazio as Napoli draw 1-1 at the Maradona

Frattesi found himself alone in the box and finished with his left foot in the 27th minute to put Lazio ahead. Two minutes after halftime, Napoli found the equalizer without even needing a shot: Alfonso Pedraza turned the ball into his own net to make it 1-1 at the Diego Armando Maradona, the final score in this Serie A matchup.

Lazio wrote the script of the first half off a well executed counterattack. Tijjani Noslin drove the break and set up Frattesi, who finished low by the left post to make it 0-1. Before that goal, Napoli had their own chances: Noa Lang tried twice from outside the box, and Rafa Marin sent a header crashing off target after a Kevin De Bruyne cross, but the visitors took the lead into the break.

The second half opened with an unexpected blow for the home side. Just a minute in, at the 47th minute mark, the ball ended up in Alfonso Pedraza's own net and Napoli leveled the score without needing to manufacture a clear chance. From there the match opened up: Scott McTominay, Rasmus Hojlund and De Bruyne all tested their luck for Napoli, while Noslin, Gustav Isaksen and, late in the match, Matteo Cancellieri answered for Lazio. Neither goal was breached again and the draw held until the final whistle, with four minutes of stoppage time added on.

What the numbers say

The statistical split was even, almost identical across several categories, and that balance ended up showing in the final result.

According to our xG estimate calculated from the match's shots, Napoli generated 2.052 expected goals to Lazio's 0.946. The gap suggests the home side produced the more dangerous chances, though they ended up taking just a point, owed in large part to Pedraza's own goal.

Going into the match, we had projected a 44% win probability for Napoli, 29% for a draw and 27% for Lazio, with a combined total of 2.52 expected goals between the two sides. The draw ended up being the result, which our model had pegged as the least likely outcome of the three, and the final score (1-1) came in below the 2.52 combined goals we had anticipated.

What it means in the standings

Lazio came into the match as Serie A's leader with 29 points from 11 games, without a single loss, while Napoli sat in tenth place with 15 points also from 11 matches, a gap of 14 points between the two sides before kickoff. The draw doesn't change that picture much: Lazio adds one more point and keeps its unbeaten run intact, while Napoli remains stuck in the middle of the table.

The match had a bit of everything except clean finishing in the final third: chances shared evenly, one lethal counterattack and a mistake that ended up weighing as much as a well worked goal. In the end, neither Napoli could capitalize on their greater attacking output nor could Lazio hold on to the lead they had built from one of their few clear chances.