Philadelphia Union, clear favorite against a struggling Santos Laguna

Subaru Park hosts a matchup between two teams arriving with very different needs: Philadelphia Union looks to reassert itself after an uneven start, while Santos Laguna lands in Pennsylvania in urgent need of a turnaround following a difficult opening to the season. The fixture belongs to Group 1 of the tournament, where every point carries weight this early in the competition.

How the two teams arrive

The home side sits in 13th place in the group with just two matches played so far this tournament, one win and one loss, with 3 goals for and 2 against. The bigger picture is more encouraging, though: over their last five matches, Philadelphia has racked up four wins against just one loss, a stretch that stands in contrast to their current spot in the table. Offensively they're averaging 1.12 goals per game and tend to do the most damage between the 61st and 75th minutes, the window in which they've scored most often. Milan Iloski is their clear go-to scorer with 10 goals, well ahead of Indiana Vassilev and Neil Pierre, who have 2 apiece.

Santos Laguna, meanwhile, is going through a critical stretch. They sit in 17th place in the group, also having played two matches, both losses, with just 1 goal scored and 5 allowed. The recent trend is even more worrying: five straight losses in their last five matches, without so much as a draw to show for it. Their goalkeeper hasn't kept a clean sheet in a single match (0%) and they're conceding an average of 3 goals per game, a number that goes a long way toward explaining their slide. Their goals tend to come between the 31st and 45th minutes, and their scoring load is split between Lucas Di Yorio and Eduardo Aguirre, each with a single goal.

Projected lineups

For Philadelphia Union, the projected lineup (medium confidence based on recent patterns) would have Andre Blake in goal, a back line of Nathan Harriel, Kai Wagner, Frankie Westfield and Neil Pierre, a midfield of Danley Jean Jacques, Cavan Sullivan, Jovan Lukic and Indiana Vassilev, and Bruno Damiani paired with Milan Iloski up top.

For Santos Laguna, the projected starting eleven would have Carlos Acevedo between the posts, with Emmanuel Echeverria, Felipe Sanchez, Mauricio Cuevas and Franco Pardo across the back. The midfield would feature Salvador Mariscal, Ezequiel Bullaude, Fran Villalba, Aldo Lopez and Diego Gonzalez, with Lucas Di Yorio as the lone forward.

Match probabilities

EnPelotas' proprietary model shows a clear lean toward the home side, though it doesn't rule out other outcomes entirely:

The favoritism toward Philadelphia is clear and lines up with the gap in recent form between the two sides, though a 16% chance for the visitors and a 23% chance of a draw are a reminder that soccer doesn't follow a script. The model's expected goals put the projected scoreline at 2.06 for the home side versus 1 for the visitors, for a total of 3.06 goals, a figure that backs up the trend suggesting this match goes over 2.5 total goals (estimated at 72%). The probability of both teams scoring sits at 33%, a number that suggests Santos Laguna's defensive fragility might not be enough on its own to get them on the scoresheet as well.

With Philadelphia looking to build on its resurgence and Santos Laguna in need of a breaking point to halt its slide, Subaru Park will host a contest where recent numbers point in one direction, but where the field will have the final say.