Philadelphia Union chase sixth straight win as Orlando City search for road relief

Five wins in a row can change the mood around any club, and that is exactly what the Philadelphia Union bring to Subaru Park in MLS action. Standing across from them will be Orlando City SC, a team that once rattled off three straight victories of its own before hitting the brakes with back to back losses. With the Eastern Conference's middle tier this tight, this clash between sixth and seventh place could shake up the standings in a hurry.

The Union sit at 10 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses through 26 matches, with 50 goals scored and 42 allowed, numbers that place them sixth in the East. But what has fans buzzing is the streak: five consecutive wins in their last five outings. At home, and looking only at their last 12 matches in that setting this season and competition, they're averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.91 allowed per game, with a 42% clean sheet rate, and their most productive stretch falls between the 61st and 75th minutes. Milan Iloski leads the way as top scorer in that sample with 8 goals, followed by Bruno Damiani and Cavan Sullivan.

Orlando City, for its part, has posted 10 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses on the season, with 46 goals scored but 60 allowed, a negative goal differential that leaves the club just one spot below the Union, separated by only two points in the standings. On the road, over their last 13 away matches in this competition and season, Martín Perelman's side is scoring 1.76 goals per game but conceding 3.30, a troubling figure, with clean sheets in just 8% of those matches. Their most productive scoring window also falls between minutes 61 and 75. Martín Ojeda tops that sample with 12 goals, while Antoine Griezmann has added 8.

The head to head series is tight: across 8 previous meetings, the Union have won 2, Orlando has won 4 and there have been 2 draws, with Philadelphia scoring 18 goals to Orlando's 16.

Probable lineups

Ryan Richter is expected, with high confidence, to stick with much of the lineup that has carried the winning streak: Andre Blake in goal, a back line of Nathan Harriel, Kai Wagner, Neil Pierre and Frankie Westfield, and up top the Bruno Damiani-Milan Iloski partnership, supported by Cavan Sullivan, Danley Jean Jacques, Indiana Vassilev and Jovan Lukic. On the Orlando side, confidence is more moderate, but all signs point to Martín Perelman going with Maxime Crépeau in net, a back line featuring Iván Angulo, David Brekalo, Robin Jansson, Bernardo Rhein and Zakaria Taifi, and an attacking trio of Justin Ellis, Antoine Griezmann and Martín Ojeda.

What the numbers say

Our model gives a clear edge to the Philadelphia Union, though not an overwhelming one: there's real room for an away upset.

Expected goals back up that read: 2.38 for the Union versus 1.49 for Orlando, a projected total of 3.87 goals, based on our own model and not betting market odds. The additional trends point to an open, high scoring game: a 67% chance of more than 2.5 goals and a 52% chance both teams find the net.

With the Union riding high and Orlando in need of results away from home, this one at Subaru Park should bring plenty of action at both ends.