Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal: a direct clash near the bottom of the Eastern Conference

Sitting 12th with 24 points and just three clear of CF Montreal, Philadelphia Union host a rival facing a similar reality at Subaru Park: neither side is fighting for anything major this season, but MLS shows no mercy, and every point in the Eastern Conference carries weight. This match has the feel of a direct duel between table neighbors.

The Union arrive with a record of 6 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in 22 matches, with 34 goals scored and 39 conceded. Over the last five games they've shown some stability: a loss, a win, two draws and another win, a stretch that, while not spectacular, at least stopped the bleeding. Montreal, for its part, carries a shakier record: 5 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses, with a very negative goal difference of 30 scored to 46 allowed. Their recent form isn't encouraging either: a draw, a win, another draw, a loss and one more draw, three ties in five games that point to a team unable to close out matches either way.

A couple of season trends are worth noting, though they come from separate samples and shouldn't be confused with the tournament standings. Playing at home in MLS 2026, the Union average 1.21 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game over their last 10 matches in that setting, with a 30% clean sheet rate, and tend to be most productive between the 61st and 75th minutes. Montreal, on the other hand, have conceded an average of 3 goals per game on the road over their last 11 away matches, with just a 9% clean sheet rate, though they score 1.36 goals per game and tend to do so early, between minutes 0 and 15.

What the head-to-head says

The recent history between these two clearly favors the Union: of 8 meetings, they won 5, drew 1 and lost 2, with a combined tally of 17 goals for and 12 against. That record, combined with home advantage, feeds into the Union being favorites for this match.

Probable lineups

With medium reliability, the Union should line up with Andre Blake between the posts, a back line of Nathan Harriel, Kai Wagner, Neil Pierre and Frankie Westfield, a midfield of Indiana Vassilev, Danley Jean Jacques, Cavan Sullivan and Jovan Lukic, and up top the duo of Bruno Damiani and Milan Iloski, who leads the team's scoring at home in this sample with 11 goals.

Montreal, with a low-reliability probable lineup, would go with Thomas Gillier in goal, a defense of Luca Petrasso, Jalen Neal, Brayan Vera and Dawid Bugaj, a midfield with Dani Pereira, Fabian Herbers, Victor Loturi and Matty Longstaff, and up front Prince Owusu, who has 13 goals as a visitor in this sample, alongside Hennadii Synchuk.

What the numbers say

Our in-house model sees the Union as clear favorites, with a 59% chance of victory compared to 18% for Montreal, though the 23% draw probability leaves the door open for a tight result. Expected goals also point to a match with plenty of action: 2.04 for the home side against 1.06 for the visitors, a combined total of 3.09 that lines up with the 70% our model assigns to the match going over 2.5 goals, plus a 45% chance both teams score. All of this is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction.

With the standings so tight in the middle and lower reaches of the Eastern Conference, Subaru Park hosts a match that may not change either team's trajectory, but could help the Union pull further away from the bottom while making Montreal's season even harder.