Portland Timbers Stun St. Louis City with Three Goals in Six Minutes

Three goals in just six minutes, spanning the end of the first half and the start of the second, were all it took for the Portland Timbers to leave Energizer Park stunned. The final score was 3-2 in favor of the Timbers, who held off a late St. Louis City SC rally in MLS play.

The match was even until the 41st minute. That's when Kristoffer Velde struck, finishing with his right foot from inside the box off a Cole Bassett assist to make it 1-0. St. Louis barely had time to process the blow when, right at the start of the second half, the real hammer fell: in the 47th minute, David da Costa doubled the lead with a right-footed finish from the center of the box, and moments later on the clock, following a counterattack, Velde notched his second goal of the night to make it 3-0. In six minutes of actual play, the game was decided.

St. Louis refused to fold. Daniel Edelman pulled one back in the 57th minute with a header off a Carlo Holse cross, and the home side threw everything forward in search of the equalizer. The persistence paid off in stoppage time: in the 90th minute, Jeong Sang-Bin, who had come on at halftime for Damion Downs, showed up with a long-range strike from a tough angle, assisted by Chris Durkin, to make it 3-2, the final score. There was no more time for anything else, though there was time for Kamal Miller to pick up a second yellow card in the 95th minute, leaving the Timbers down a man in the closing moments.

Dominance That Didn't Translate to the Scoreboard

The possession and overall volume numbers clearly favored St. Louis City SC, which couldn't convert that edge into the final result:

According to our expected goals estimate calculated from the match's shots, St. Louis generated 2.536 xG to Portland's mere 0.855. In other words, the home side built far more danger, but the Timbers' efficiency in the key moments, three goals in six minutes, ended up outweighing the volume of play.

That contrast also explains the gap with what had been published before the match: the preview gave St. Louis City SC a 56% chance of winning, with 22% for a draw and 22% for a visiting win, with expected goals of 2.24 for the home side and 1.40 for the visitors. The result ended up going in the exact opposite direction of that projection: the team that came in as the favorite ended up losing despite dominating possession and generating more clear-cut chances.

What the Result Means in the Standings

In the Western Conference, St. Louis City SC entered this match in third place with 51 points from 32 games played (14 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses), while the Portland Timbers sat in 11th place with 40 points from the same number of matches (11 wins, 7 draws and 14 losses). The gap between the two sides before this clash stood at 11 points, a distance this loss does nothing to close for the home side.

For the Portland Timbers, the result is a significant lift in a season that hasn't been easy: three goals in such a short stretch were enough to flip a match that, based on the run of play, looked to be heading the home side's way. For St. Louis City SC, there's the lingering feeling of a match controlled in terms of possession and chances, but one that slipped away in the exact minutes when they couldn't contain their opponent.