Puebla looks to snap winless skid against a still winless Santos Laguna

Estadio Cuauhtémoc hosts a clash of contrasting fortunes in Liga MX: Puebla, sitting in the middle of the table, is looking to get back to winning ways against a Santos Laguna side that has yet to pick up a single victory this tournament. With the two clubs so far apart in form and standing, this match looks like a prime chance for La Franja to snap a recent rough patch.

How they arrive

Puebla sits seventh with a record of two wins, one draw and one loss in four matches played, scoring 6 goals and conceding 5. Still, the team's recent form is a concern: over its last five matches (a different sample from the tournament record), it has managed just one win, one draw and three losses, including a stretch of three straight defeats before bouncing back with a win in its most recent outing. The Puebla side averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game, with clean sheets in just 25 percent of matches, and tends to do its damage between the 16th and 30th minutes. Fernando Monarrez, Eduardo Mustre and Ignacio Maestro Puch lead the scoring chart with one goal apiece.

Santos Laguna, meanwhile, is off to a very tough start to the season: the club sits last in the standings, with four losses in four matches played, 2 goals scored and 8 allowed. Over its last five games, the Laguna side has won just once and lost the other four. It's averaging just 0.5 goals scored per match, hasn't kept a clean sheet all tournament (0 percent), and its most productive scoring window comes between the 31st and 45th minutes. Lucas Di Yorio and Eduardo Aguirre are its only scorers so far, with one goal each. The gap in the standings sits at 7 points in Puebla's favor.

Head to head

The history between these two clubs is even: across 8 previous meetings, Puebla has won 4 and Santos Laguna has also won 4, with no draws on record. In terms of goals, the visiting side actually holds a slight edge, with 11 scored compared to the home side's 10, confirming that, present form aside, the head-to-head record doesn't point to a clear favorite.

Probable lineups

In an estimated lineup with medium reliability, Puebla could start Ricardo Gutierrez in goal; Juan Vargas, Facundo Almada, Fernando Monarrez and Iker Moreno across the back line; Sergio Sanabria, Emiliano Gomez, Kevin Velasco, Alejandro Organista and Brayan Garnica in midfield, with Eduardo Mustre leading the attack.

Santos Laguna, also in probable form, would field Carlos Acevedo between the posts; Mauricio Cuevas, Felipe Sanchez, Franco Pardo, Emmanuel Echeverria and Efrain Orona in defense; Fran Villalba, Aldo Lopez, Ezequiel Bullaude and Salvador Mariscal in midfield, with Eduardo Aguirre up top.

Match probabilities

Our in-house statistical model clearly favors Puebla as the home side, giving it a 57 percent chance of winning compared to 17 percent for Santos Laguna, with 26 percent left for a draw. This is our own projection, not a betting line, but it lines up well with where both teams stand right now: the Puebla side, despite its recent slump, looks in far better shape than a rival that still hasn't managed to pick up all three points. The expected goals numbers back that up too, with 1.75 for Puebla against 0.88 for Santos Laguna, for an estimated total of 2.63 goals in the match.

What's next

Puebla has a clear opportunity here to put an end to its recent inconsistency against a Santos Laguna side that urgently needs to turn its season around. The Cuauhtemoc will host a match in which the numbers tilt things toward the home side, though the history between these two clubs is a reminder that upsets can't be ruled out.