Querétaro hosts a surging Cruz Azul, with history and the favorite's tag against them

Querétaro and Cruz Azul face off at Estadio Corregidora separated by just 3 points in the Liga MX standings, though the picture in the table is more lopsided than it looks: the hosts sit eighth with 20 points, while the visitors are third with 23. It's not a final, but it is a game that could shuffle several spots in the overall standings.

Esteban González's Querétaro arrive with an even record this tournament: 6 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in 12 matches, with 16 goals scored and 15 allowed. Their form over the last five games has trended from good to bad: they opened with a draw, strung together two wins and then closed out with two straight losses. At home, and it's worth tagging this correctly since it's a different sample (the last 5 home games this Liga MX season), they average 1.392 goals scored and 1.2 allowed per game, with a 20% clean sheet rate and a tendency to score between the 16th and 30th minutes. Alí Ávila and Santiago Homenchenko are the names that show up most in that sample, with 5 goals each.

Cruz Azul, coached by Joel Huiqui, come in with a sturdier record: 7 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in 13 matches, with 29 goals scored and 22 allowed. Over their last five games they picked up one loss, two draws and two wins, with an upward trend toward the end of that stretch. On the road, in this season's own sample (6 games), the Machine score 1.993 goals per game and allow 1.668, without a single clean sheet in that span. They tend to show up on the scoreboard late, between the 76th and 90th minutes, led by Gabriel Fernández with 5 goals, Nicolás Ibáñez with 4 and Jeremy Márquez with 3.

What the history says

The head to head hasn't been even: in 8 meetings, Cruz Azul has won 4, Querétaro just 1, with 3 draws. The aggregate scoreline also clearly favors the visitors, with Cruz Azul scoring 14 goals against Querétaro's 10.

Projected lineups

For Querétaro, the projected XI, with high confidence based on recent matches, would have Guillermo Allison in goal; Daniel Parra, Lucas Abascia, Diego Reyes and Bayron Duarte across the back line; Carlo García, Mateo Coronel, Enzo Giménez, Santiago Homenchenko and Paulo Victor in midfield; and Alí Ávila as the lone forward.

On Cruz Azul's side, the confidence in the projection is low, but the names that come up most often are Andrés Gudiño in goal; Gonzalo Piovi, Jesús Orozco and Willer Ditta in defense; Omar Campos, Érik Lira and Jeremy Márquez in midfield; and an attack with several options, including Agustín Palavecino, Carlos Rodríguez, Gabriel Fernández and Nicolás Ibáñez.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model tags Cruz Azul as the favorite, though not by a wide margin: a 50% chance of a road win, against 23% for Querétaro and 27% for a draw. It's not a lopsided matchup, but there's no sweeping gap between the three outcomes either.

Those figures are our own estimate based on this season's trends, not a betting line. The model also projects a total of 2.69 expected goals in the match, in line with overall trends: a 62% chance of more than 2.5 goals and a 67% chance both teams score.

With Querétaro needing to snap a two-game losing streak and Cruz Azul arriving in good form, the Corregidora promises a game with scoring chances at both ends.