Racing hosts red-hot Alavés as LaLiga's surprise package looks to keep winning ways alive at El Sardinero

El Sardinero welcomes an Alavés side that has emerged as LaLiga's surprise package this season: only Barcelona boasts better numbers than the Basque club, which sits second with 10 points and hasn't lost through four matchdays. On the other side will be a Racing de Santander team that needs to stop the bleeding defensively if it wants to climb out of the table's uncomfortable middle ground.

Racing has posted a record of one win, one draw and two losses so far this season, with 7 goals scored and 8 conceded, numbers that leave the club in 13th place. The last five matches haven't looked much different: two wins, one draw and two losses, a rollercoaster stretch that sums up the Cantabrian side's up and down level. Across this season's LaLiga matches, home and away, Racing averages 1.75 goals scored and 2 allowed per game, without a single clean sheet in that span, and tends to find the net between the 16th and 30th minutes. Yassir Zabiri stands out as the team's top offensive threat in those matches with three goals, followed by Sergio Canales and Andrés Martín.

Alavés, meanwhile, arrives with far steadier footing: three wins and a draw in four matchdays, 10 goals scored and just 3 allowed. Its recent form backs up the trend, with three wins, a draw and a loss over the last five outings. In that same sample of this season's LaLiga action, the Basque club averages 2.5 goals scored and just 0.75 allowed per game, with clean sheets in 50% of those matches and a particularly strong scoring surge between the 76th and 90th minutes, right when opponents start to feel the fatigue. Lucas Boyé and Mariano Díaz are the names that show up most often on the scoresheet in that stretch.

The gap in the standings sits at 6 points between the two clubs, and the recent head to head record doesn't favor Racing either: in the last four meetings, Alavés won twice, there were two draws, and the Cantabrian side didn't take a single victory, with a combined score of 3 goals for Racing against 7 for Alavés.

Probable lineups

With low reliability based on recent matches, Racing's likely starting eleven would have Julen Agirrezabala in goal, with Iñigo Vicente, Andrés Martín and Sergio Canales running the midfield in front of a back line featuring Álvaro Mantilla, Jorge Salinas, Manu Hernando and Pablo Ramón. Asier Villalibre would lead the line up top.

Alavés, with a medium reliability projected lineup, would keep much of its usual setup intact: Antonio Sivera in goal, Nahuel Tenaglia, Ville Koski and Jonny Otto across the back, and a midfield of Ángel Pérez, Antonio Blanco, Abde Rebbach and Pablo Ibáñez. Up front, the pairing of Toni Martínez and Lucas Boyé remains the most frequent choice.

What the numbers say

Our model, which is an in-house estimate and not a betting line, sees Alavés as the favorite but isn't taking anything for granted:

The 46% figure puts Alavés ahead, but it's far from an overwhelming favorite: with 30% for Racing and 24% for a draw, the match looks more open than the 6 point gap in the standings would suggest. Our model's xG numbers, 1.53 for Racing and 1.91 for Alavés, point to a game with goals at both ends, a notion backed up by the broader trends: a 63% chance of more than 2.5 goals and a 75% chance of both teams scoring.

With those numbers on the table, El Sardinero is gearing up for a match that promises to go back and forth. Racing needs points to pull away from the drop zone; Alavés needs to keep up the pace that has it breathing down Barcelona's neck.