Real Sociedad look to snap out of it against Espanyol at Anoeta, but hardly the outright favorites

Zero points out of a possible six and just one goal scored in two matches: that's how Real Sociedad head into their clash with Espanyol at Anoeta, one of those matchups in LaLiga that tend to reveal whether a crisis is taking shape or is still just a rough start. Bottom of the table, with two losses and a goal difference of minus 4, the San Sebastian side need something that looks like a response.

The numbers tell the story: Real Sociedad have lost both of their matches in the competition, with 1 goal scored and 5 conceded, an average of 0.5 goals scored and 2.5 allowed per game. The recent run offers little comfort either: of the last five matches, four ended in defeat and one in a draw, with no wins at all. Luka Sucic is, for now, the club's only scorer with one goal, and his most productive stretch has come between the 31st and 45th minutes.

Espanyol arrive in a very different spot. Eighth in the standings, one point behind the home side in this head to head comparison (a 3 point gap), they have one win and one loss in their two matches, with 4 goals scored and 2 allowed. Over their last five matches they've picked up three wins, one draw and just one defeat, a run that stands in sharp contrast to Real Sociedad's current mood. The Catalan side have kept a clean sheet in half of their matches and tend to strike early: their most productive scoring window falls between minute 0 and 15. Roberto Fernandez leads the attack with two goals, followed by Cala and Tyrhys Dolan with one each.

What the history says

There's plenty of history between these two: over the last 8 meetings, Real Sociedad won 5, Espanyol won 1 and there were 2 draws, with a goal tally of 12 to 8 in favor of the San Sebastian club. It's a record that clearly favors the home side, though the current form of both teams tells a rather different story than that historical balance.

The probable lineups

With medium reliability, Real Sociedad's likely starting eleven would keep much of the usual base: Alex Remiro in goal, a back line with Sergio Gomez, Jon Martin and Jon Aramburu, and a midfield featuring Yangel Herrera, Luka Sucic, Takefusa Kubo and Carlos Soler, with Orri Oskarsson leading the line up top.

For Espanyol, the projection carries low reliability, but points to Marko Dmitrovic between the posts, a back line of Omar El Hilali, Clemens Riedel, Carlos Romero and Leandro Cabrera, Edu Exposito and Urko Gonzalez de Zarate as fixtures in midfield (starters in each of the last six matches), and Roberto Fernandez as the main attacking reference.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model gives the home side a 47% chance of winning, compared to 25% for Espanyol, with a 28% chance of a draw. Those figures don't make Real Sociedad an overwhelming favorite despite home advantage: a draw plus a visiting win add up to more than half of the combined probability. Expected goals also point to a match with chances for both sides: 1.62 for Real Sociedad and 1.13 for Espanyol, for an estimated total of 2.75. Worth noting that this is our own model based estimate built on the season's trends, not a closed forecast or a betting line.

Anoeta needs an answer, and Espanyol arrive with the confidence of a team that hasn't lost in several matches. The numbers lean slightly toward the home side, but not enough to call this a formality.