Red Bulls and Atlanta United Clash in MLS, Both Desperate to Stop the Slide

With just a handful of matchdays left, neither team wants to finish the season looking over its shoulder at the standings. New York Red Bulls host Atlanta United at Sports Illustrated Stadium in an MLS clash between two clubs stuck in the lower half of the Eastern Conference, separated by just 6 points in the table.

The home side arrives in free fall: just one win in their last five matches, with four losses in that span. On the season, Michael Bradley's team has posted 11 wins, 6 draws and 16 losses in 33 games, scoring 45 goals and conceding 62, a negative goal difference that leaves them in tenth place in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta isn't in great shape either, though their recent form is a bit less brutal: two wins and three losses in their last five outings. Their season numbers are even tighter, with 9 wins, 6 draws and 18 losses, 43 goals scored and 57 allowed, good for 13th place.

It's worth looking at some contextual numbers here, though they shouldn't be confused with overall MLS performance. Playing at home this season, the Red Bulls average 1.506 goals scored and 1.815 conceded per match, with clean sheets in just 13% of those games, and they tend to do damage in the opening 15 minutes. Julian Hall leads the way as their top scorer in that sample, with 13 goals, followed by Jorge Ruvalcaba with 8. Atlanta, on the road, averages 1.073 goals scored and 1.506 conceded, with a clean sheet in 19% of away matches, and their most productive stretch comes between the 76th and 90th minutes. Miguel Almiron and Aleksey Miranchuk stand out there, with 7 goals apiece.

What the Head to Head Says

The two clubs have met 8 times, with an even split: 3 wins for the Red Bulls, 3 for Atlanta and 2 draws. In total goals, New York holds the edge, 12 to 8.

Possible Lineups

For the Red Bulls, the likely starting eleven would include Ethan Horvath in goal, a back line with Devin Padelford, Julian Bazan, Dylan Nealis and Tim Parker, a midfield with Adri Mehmeti, Jorge Ruvalcaba, Mohammed Sofo and Ronald Donkor, and Julian Hall paired with Cade Cowell up top. On Atlanta's side, the projected lineup has Lucas Hoyos in net, Junior Alonso, Paulo Diaz, Elias Baez and Tomas Jacob across the back, Giuliano Galoppo, Mauricio Amaro and Tristan Muyumba in midfield, and an attacking trio of Miguel Almiron, Breel Embolo and Aleksey Miranchuk. In both cases these are projected lineups based on recent matches, not officially confirmed.

Our model, based on this season's trends, gives a slight edge to the home side:

The breakdown makes clear there's no runaway favorite here: the Red Bulls are slightly better positioned thanks to home field, but the gap to a draw or an away win is narrow. Expected goals back that up, with 1.75 for the home side and 1.3 for Atlanta, a combined 3.04 that points to a match with chances at both ends. In fact, our trends show a 50% probability of more than 2.5 goals and a 39% chance both teams score. Keep in mind this is our own projection, not a betting line.

With neither club in good form, the match shapes up as a chance for one of them to break out of its recent funk. Sports Illustrated Stadium will have the final say.