Rennes hosts unbeaten Olympiakos riding a perfect Europa League record

Three matchdays into the Europa League league phase, and there's a contrast worth noting: Olympiakos arrives unbeaten with a perfect run of wins, while Rennes still doesn't know what it feels like to lose, yet hasn't managed more than a single victory either. Those diverging paths meet this Thursday at Roazhon Park.

Franck Haise's Rennes side carries a record of one win, two draws and zero losses so far in the competition, with 4 goals scored and 3 conceded. It's the profile of a team that doesn't lose, but also one that hasn't quite figured out how to close games out. Over its last five matches across all competitions, things get a bit trickier: two wins, one draw and two losses. In the overall group standings, that leaves Rennes in 13th place, with 5 points from 3 matches played.

Standing across from them is an Olympiakos side that hasn't dropped a single point: three wins in three matches, with 4 goals scored and just 1 conceded. That defensive solidity carries over into their recent form too, with five straight wins in their last five outings. In the standings they sit fifth with 9 points, just behind the top spots, and the gap separating the two clubs in the table stands at 4 points.

It's also worth looking at each team's season trends, though these come from a separate sample and shouldn't be confused with the competition's own record. Across their three Europa League matches home and away, Rennes averages 1.333 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, with clean sheets in 33% of matches and their most productive stretch coming between the 76th and 90th minutes, where Mousa Al Tamari, Boulaye Dia and Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal each scored once. Olympiakos, over that same three-match sample, also averages 1.333 goals scored but just 0.333 conceded, with clean sheets in 67% of matches and their best scoring run between the 31st and 45th minutes, featuring goals from Roman Yaremchuk, Santiago Hezze and Armando Gonzalez.

Probable Lineups

For Rennes, with medium confidence in our projection, the likely starting eleven would see Brice Samba again between the posts, with Charlie Cresswell, Anthony Rouault and Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal across the back line. The midfield would feature Aboubakar Nagida, Valentin Rongier, Przemyslaw Frankowski, Sebastian Szymanski, Adrien Thomasson and Mahdi Camara, with Mousa Al Tamari leading the attack.

On the Olympiakos side, with lower confidence in the projection, Stefan Ortega would guard the net, backed by Lorenzo Pirola, Panagiotis Retsos, Nayair Tiknizyan and Marcus Pedersen in defense. The midfield would include Gustavo Puerta, Remo Freuler, Jota Silva, Chiquinho and Joel Roca, with Roman Yaremchuk up top as the lone striker.

What the Numbers Say

Our model doesn't see a clearly one-sided match, though it does lean toward the visitors as the slight favorite.

The numbers don't point to a fully settled affair: the draw sits close to 30% and Rennes retains a real shot at victory, but the 47% favoring Olympiakos reflects their stronger start to the competition. Expected goals, another of our in-house estimates, point to a tight battle on shots but with a slight edge for the visitors: 1.03 for Rennes versus 1.50 for Olympiakos, a combined total of 2.53. All of this is an internal projection, not a betting line.

The broader match trends also point to a game with goals: a 50% probability of going over 2.5 total goals and a 67% chance both sides find the net. With Rennes needing a win to climb the standings and Olympiakos looking to keep their perfect run alive, Roazhon Park promises a clash that leaves little room for hedging.