Rennes hosts a rebuilding Auxerre with history and the numbers on its side

Roazhon Park hosts a matchup between two sides that need points for different reasons. Rennes comes in fifth, with sharp attacking play but a shaky defense, while Auxerre sits in eleventh, dragged down by a goal difference of minus 5. It's a Ligue 1 clash, and four points separate the two clubs in the standings.

Rennes has put together three wins, a draw and a loss so far this campaign, scoring 8 goals and conceding 9 across five matches. Over its last five outings the club reeled off three straight wins before drawing and then losing its most recent game, so despite the table position it isn't arriving in red-hot form. Auxerre, for its part, has two wins and three losses in the league, with 7 goals scored and 12 conceded, the worst goal difference of the two clubs. Its recent form tells a tale of two halves: it opened with three consecutive defeats before closing out with back-to-back wins, a sign that Will Still's side is starting to turn things around.

It's also worth looking at how each team has performed on its own turf this season. At home in Ligue 1, Rennes has averaged 2 goals scored and 1.333 conceded per game, keeping a clean sheet in 33% of its home matches, though that's based on a small sample of just three games; the club also tends to strike early, with its most frequent scoring window falling between the 0th and 15th minutes. Estéban Lepaul stands out as the team's top scorer in that stretch. Auxerre, looking at both home and away matches in the same competition and season, averages 1.4 goals scored and 2.4 conceded, with clean sheets in just 20% of games, and its most productive scoring window comes between the 61st and 75th minutes, with Cameron Archer as its biggest threat.

What the history books say

The two sides have met 8 times, with Rennes holding the edge: 3 wins to Auxerre's 2, with 3 draws. In total goals across those meetings, Rennes also comes out on top, 12 to 8.

Possible lineups

Rennes' likely starting eleven, rated medium confidence, would see Brice Samba in goal; Charlie Cresswell, Przemyslaw Frankowski, Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal and Quentin Merlin across the back line; Adrien Thomasson, Valentin Rongier, Mahdi Camara, Sebastian Szymanski and Mousa Al Tamari in midfield, with Estéban Lepaul leading the line.

For Auxerre, also rated medium confidence, the probable lineup would have Mamadou Diop between the posts; Clément Akpa, Christ Makosso and Sinaly Diomandé in defense; Lamine Sy, Kévin Danois, Arthur Piedfort and Naouirou Ahamada in midfield, with Danny Namaso, Rémy Labeau Lascary and Cameron Archer up front.

What do the numbers say before kickoff?

Our model has Rennes as the favorite thanks to home advantage, though not by an overwhelming margin over Auxerre.

Our own expected goals estimate puts Rennes at 1.85 and Auxerre at 1.14, for a combined total of 2.99. That figure lines up with two other trend readings from our model: a 73% chance the match goes over 2.5 total goals and a 100% chance both teams find the net. These are our own projections, not betting odds, but the picture points to an open contest rather than a routine night for the home side.

With both defenses showing cracks this season and two attacks that need wins badly, Roazhon Park could offer little peace of mind for either bench.