Riestra and Lanús Look to Break Out of the Draw Rut at the Guillermo Laza

Five draws in a row. That is how Deportivo Riestra arrives at this meeting with Lanús at the Guillermo Laza, a stat that says everything about its recent stretch in the Argentine Primera División. None of those five games got away from them, but they could not close any of them out either: finishing off matches remains the pending assignment for a team that draws plenty and wins little.

Riestra sits on 9 points from 8 games played, with 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, and a goal difference of 8 for and 7 against. Lanús is just one point ahead in the Group A table, with 10 points from 8 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses) and also 8 goals scored, though it has conceded 8. The gap between the two sides in the standings is just 1 point, confirming how even things are between them right now.

The visitors' recent form has been shakier than the home side's: over its last five matches, Lanús has picked up two wins, a draw and two losses, swinging between good and bad results without finding any consistency. Riestra, on the other hand, hasn't lost in that span, but hasn't won either: five straight draws are five straight draws, and that shapes any expectations for this match.

Looking only at home performance in the 2026 Argentine Primera División (a sample of 8 games, distinct from the tournament's overall record), Riestra averages 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match, with clean sheets in 50% of those games, and tends to score most often between the 31st and 45th minutes. Antony Alonso is the team's top scorer in that sample, with 2 goals. Lanús, on the road in that same season, averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per match, with clean sheets in 25% of those matches, and its most productive stretch comes between the 61st and 75th minutes. Dylan Aquino leads that category with 5 goals.

The head-to-head record overwhelmingly favors the home side: of 8 meetings, Riestra has won 6, drawn 2 and never lost to Lanús, with a goal difference of 12 to 2. That is a history that carries weight, though it guarantees nothing in the present for two teams arriving with different needs.

Probable lineups

With "low" reliability according to available data, Riestra could take the field with Ignacio Arce in goal; a back line of Facundo Miño, Cristian Paz, Ignacio Gariglio, Nicolás Sansotre and Mariano Bracamonte; Milton Céliz, Yonatan Goitía and Gabriel Obredor in midfield; and Nicolás Benegas alongside Antony Alonso up front.

Lanús, with an estimated "medium" reliability, would likely field Nahuel Losada between the posts; Carlos Izquierdoz, Sasha Marcich, Tomás Guidara and Ronaldo Dejesús on defense; Agustín Cardozo, Eduardo Salvio, Felipe Peña Biafore, Dylan Aquino and Franco Watson in midfield; and Allan Wlk as the attacking reference.

What the numbers say

Our model projects an even match, with a slight lean toward the draw:

This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line, and the breakdown confirms there is no clear favorite: the draw is the single most likely outcome, which fits with the home side's recent run. Expected goals are also low: 0.69 for Riestra and 0.77 for Lanús, a combined 1.46 that lines up with only 19% of forecasts seeing more than 2.5 goals and just 28% expecting both teams to score.

With those numbers on the table, everything points to a tight match with few clear-cut chances, one where Riestra will look to snap its run of draws and Lanús will try to make the most of a head-to-head record that, so far, has been completely elusive at the Guillermo Laza.