Rioja springs the surprise as Valencia edge out Alavés 0-1 at Mendizorroza

Valencia walked away from Mendizorroza with all three points thanks to a single moment of quality: a finish from Luis Rioja in the 77th minute, just moments after coming on, that made it 0-1 and settled the match. Before that, the game had produced everything but goals, including one wiped out by VAR that could have changed the story much earlier.

Right at the quarter-hour mark, Deportivo Alavés suffered its first scare: Arnaut Danjuma put the ball in the net in the 16th minute, but a VAR review chalked off Valencia's celebration a minute later. The score stayed level and the match turned into an open, end-to-end affair with chances at both ends. Hugo Duro tested the keeper twice in the space of a couple of minutes off crosses from Danjuma, while at the other end Pablo Ibáñez and Toni Martínez had their own looks at goal without finding the finish. The first half ended 0-0, with Ángel Pérez and Ville Koski still probing Valencia's goalkeeper in stoppage time.

In the second half, Alavés kept pushing through Boyé and Rebbach, while Valencia answered with Danjuma and Javi Guerra buzzing around the opposing box. The match looked headed for a draw until Óscar Sánchez turned to his bench, sending on Rioja for Duro in the 62nd minute. Fifteen minutes later, the substitution paid off. Javi Guerra slipped a through ball in behind, and Rioja finished with his right foot, tucking it inside the near post for what proved to be the only goal of the match.

Alavés kept pushing until the very end, with a chance for Youssef Enríquez and a header from Boyé in stoppage time, but the equalizer never came.

What the numbers say

Valencia controlled more of the ball and got forward more often down the flanks, while Alavés played a more direct game and generated more shots, though without any more precision than its rival.

According to our xG estimate calculated from the match's shots, Alavés generated 1.269 expected goals against 0.829 for Valencia, a number that suggests the home side had enough material to have taken at least a point.

That contrast also runs against what we projected before kickoff: we gave Alavés a 48% chance of winning, against just 23% for Valencia and 29% for a draw, with expected goals of 1.53 for the home side and 1.02 for the visitors. The final result flipped that forecast on its head: it was Valencia, the team given the least chance before kickoff, that walked away with the win.

What it means in the standings

In LaLiga, Alavés came into this round with 10 points on the season (3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 6 games played) and stayed there after the loss. Valencia, meanwhile, had been sitting last with just 4 points in 6 matches (1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses), and this victory offers real breathing room near the bottom of the table, even if the 6-point gap between the two sides in the standings still reflects the struggles Valencia has been carrying through this early stretch of the season.