River Plate dominates but settles for 1-1 draw with Sarmiento as VAR wipes out two goals

River Plate controlled the ball from the opening minute, but it was Sarmiento that found the net first. The final score at Estadio Eva Perón finished 1-1, a result that felt like an uphill climb for River for nearly the entire match in Argentina's Primera División.

The home side struck early: in the 14th minute, Julian Contrera finished with his right foot from close range after a cross into the box from Junior Marabel. It was a direct blow that silenced the visitors just as they were starting to settle in with the ball at their feet.

And it wasn't for lack of chances on River's part before Sarmiento's goal: Lucas Suarez had rattled the home post with a shot in the 3rd minute, and Sebastian Driussi struck the crossbar in the 10th minute with a shot from the center of the box. River kept coming forward again and again, but Sarmiento's goal held firm, and in the end it was the home team that converted its chance.

VAR denied River the equalizer twice

The second half began with Sarmiento holding onto its 1-0 lead at home and River pushing forward without reward. The strangest stretch of the match came between the 55th and 58th minutes: Gonzalo Montiel put the ball in the net, but VAR overturned the goal after review, and the decision was confirmed three minutes later with the score still unchanged. River was left empty handed twice in the span of just a few minutes.

The equalizer, however, came shortly after. In the 70th minute, Montiel made no mistake on his second chance, firing home with his right foot from the center of the box after a through ball from Thiago Almada, and this time the goal counted. Sarmiento 1, River Plate 1, a scoreline that would hold despite later chances for Lautaro Pereyra and Nicolas Otamendi, both well handled by the home defense and goalkeeper.

The numbers tell the story of the match

Possession and shot totals make clear who controlled the ball and who had to dig in. River Plate racked up more than double the shots of Sarmiento and an overwhelming edge in control of the game, but couldn't translate that dominance into more than a single goal.

Our expected goals estimate based on the match's shots also backs up the visitors' dominance: 2.477 xG for River Plate against 1.446 for Sarmiento. The gap confirms that the Nunez side created more and better chances, even though it could only convert one.

Before kickoff, our projection gave River Plate a 48% chance of winning, against 22% for Sarmiento and 30% for a draw, with expected goals of 1.44 for the visitors and 0.89 for the home side. The outcome ended up looking more like the draw scenario than the visitors' favorite tag suggested: River dominated as expected, but couldn't turn it into a result on the scoreboard.

What it means for the Group B standings

With this result, Sarmiento stays in fourth place in Group B with 20 points from 12 matches played, while River Plate sits ninth with 17 points from the same number of games. The gap between the two sides in the standings is 3 points, a distance this Saturday's draw didn't change by much. For Sarmiento, taking a point at home against a rival that doubled it up in possession and shots carries a value the bare result doesn't always show; for River, what's left are the missed chances and two VAR disallowances that cost it, at the very least, a shot at all three points.