Roma and Atalanta clash at the Olimpico with opposite recent form guides

Eight goals scored and none conceded in two matches. Those are the numbers Roma bring into this meeting with Atalanta at the Stadio Olimpico, a duel between two of the only Serie A sides still unbeaten, alongside Inter, Milan, Juventus and Lazio. The table is tightly packed at the top, sure, but rarely does a clash between first and fifth come with such a lopsided recent history in the visitor's favor.

Roma arrive unbeaten at home with a perfect record: two games, two wins, eight goals scored and zero conceded in their league record this season. Over their last five matches overall (a broader sample), they have three wins, one draw and one loss. Atalanta, for their part, also boast a flawless start: two games played, two won, with three goals scored and one conceded. In their last five matches they likewise have three wins, one draw and one loss, with the most recent stretch being a run of three straight victories.

There's one number worth examining carefully before jumping to conclusions: in this season's Serie A, home and away combined, Roma are averaging 4 goals scored per game and have conceded none, keeping a clean sheet in 100% of their matches, though that's based on a sample of just two games. Donyell Malen stands out as their top scorer in that span with 5 goals, followed by Matias Soule and Niccolo Pisilli. Atalanta, in that same competition, are averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, keeping a clean sheet in half their matches, with scoring spread across Giacomo Raspadori, Nikola Krstovic and Lazar Samardzic.

A history that tilts toward the visitors

If precedent is anything to go by, Atalanta arrive with a strong case: of the eight meetings between the two sides, Roma have not won a single one, with two draws and six victories for the visitors. The goal difference tells the same story: 5 for Roma against 13 for Atalanta across those matchups. It's a number that carries weight, even if both teams' current form this season suggests otherwise.

Probable lineups

For Roma, everything points to Mile Svilar continuing between the posts, with a back line of Gianluca Mancini, Mario Hermoso and Evan Ndicka. In midfield, Bryan Cristante, Wesley, Devyne Rensch and Emanuele Lulli would likely feature, while up front the attacking trio would be completed by Paulo Dybala, Donyell Malen and Matias Soule. This lineup is inferred from recent matches, with medium reliability, not an official confirmation.

On Atalanta's side, the reliability of the projected lineup is lower. Marco Carnesecchi would likely start in goal, with Giorgio Scalvini, Odilon Kossounou, Davide Zappacosta and Raoul Bellanova across the back. In midfield, Ederson, Gianluca Gaetano, Lazar Samardzic and Mario Pasalic could all feature, leaving Giacomo Raspadori and Gianluca Scamacca as the attacking references.

What the numbers say

Our model, based on this season's trends, points to a tight matchup with a slight edge for the home side:

With 44% for Roma against 27% for Atalanta and a 29% chance of a draw, the model favors the home side without ruling out a surprise: these numbers point to a competitive match, not a lopsided result penciled in from the start. It's worth clarifying that this is our own estimate drawn from this season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction.

With Roma looking to keep their perfect home start intact and Atalanta hoping to break a recent history that hasn't smiled on them at the Olimpico, the Stadio Olimpico has all the ingredients for a back and forth contest between two of the teams that have started Serie A best.