Roma rallies from penalty setback to blow past Cagliari 4-2 in frantic Olimpico finish

It took Cagliari just nine minutes to go in front at the Stadio Olimpico, but the visitors left empty handed after a 4-2 that turned into a Roman party. Roma, who found themselves behind early on, came back before the break and put the game away with a flurry of goals late in the second half.

The match opened with a jolt for the home side. In the 6th minute, VAR reviewed a handball by Niccolo Pisilli inside the area and awarded Cagliari a penalty. M'Bala Nzola made no mistake from the spot in the 9th minute to make it 0-1. It looked like the visitors might make life difficult for Roma, but the response came quickly: in the 14th minute, Emanuele Lulli headed home a cross from Nahuel Molina to level the score, and just six minutes later, in the 20th minute, Pisilli himself, the very player who had conceded the penalty, popped up to finish from the center of the box after a Lulli cross to make it 2-1. In barely 14 minutes, Roma had flipped a match that started on the back foot.

That was the score at halftime, and the second half took a while to open up. Cagliari kept pushing through Nzola, through Michel Adopo and through Adam Obert's forays down the flank, but couldn't find an equalizer. It finally came in the 80th minute: Daniel Maldini, on from the bench, finished from the middle of the box after a through ball from Obert to make it 2-2. The Olimpico held its breath, but Roma answered almost immediately.

Four minutes later, in the 84th minute, Rodrigo Mora, also a substitute, headed in a cross from Daniele Ghilardi to restore the home side's lead, 3-2. And the finishing blow came right after: in the 86th minute, Donyell Malen finished from close range, by the left post, to seal the final 4-2 after an assist from Rodrigo Mora on the buildup. In six minutes, Roma had gone from conceding an equalizer to putting the game away with two more goals.

What the numbers say

Roma dominated possession and generated more offensive volume, though Cagliari didn't fall far behind in shots on target.

According to our xG estimate calculated from the match's shots, Roma generated 4.37 expected goals against 2.57 for Cagliari, a gap that fairly reflects the number of clear chances the home side created over the 90 minutes.

What we had projected

Heading into the match, our model gave Roma a 71% chance of winning, against 9% for Cagliari and 20% for a draw, with a total expected goals count of 2.87 (2.18 for Roma and 0.68 for Cagliari). The final result ended up exceeding that forecast in total goals, six instead of fewer than three, but the outcome, a clear Roma win, was exactly the scenario we considered most likely.

What the match leaves behind

With this win, Roma reaches 21 points so far this season, with a record of 6 wins, 3 draws and no losses, sitting 8 points behind league leaders Lazio. Cagliari, meanwhile, has 13 points from 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, and remains in the lower half of the Serie A table. For Cagliari, scoring two goals at a ground like the Olimpico wasn't enough against a Roma side that, despite falling behind early, showed the ability to respond at two different points in the match.