Rosario Central dominated but fell to Gimnasia La Plata in the final minutes

El Gigante de Arroyito was left wanting. Rosario Central dominated, created chances, even had a goal wiped out by VAR, but ended up losing 1-2 to Gimnasia La Plata in a match in Argentina's Primera División that slipped away in the closing minutes.

The home side spent the game on the attack. With Ángel Di María pulling the strings, Rosario Central pushed into Gimnasia's box time and again in the first half, but ran into bad luck and referee Darío Herrera. In the 29th minute, Marco Ruben put the ball in the net after a play that looked like a goal, but the VAR review disallowed it for offside, confirmed three minutes later. The first half ended scoreless despite Rosario piling up shots from Di María, Vicente Pizarro and an own goal attempt from Germán Conti.

The second half brought more of the same: Ignacio Fernández smashed a shot off the post for Gimnasia in the 58th minute, but on the same play the rebound ended up as an own goal off Jeremías Ledesma, putting Gimnasia up 0-1 in the most unexpected way. The hosts kept pushing, generating chances and corners (ten in total), but couldn't find the equalizer.

It arrived in the 85th minute, when Jáminton Campaz, on from the bench, finished with his left foot after a counterattack assisted by Tomás Badaloni to make it 1-1, a fair result given Rosario's dominance. Joy is fleeting in soccer: just two minutes later, another Gimnasia counterattack ended with a shot from outside the box by Ignacio Miramón that made it 1-2, the final score. Rosario had no time left to respond, even though the match ran until the 94th minute.

The numbers behind a dominance that wasn't enough

The stats confirm what was seen on the field: Rosario Central was clearly superior in play, but not on the scoreboard.

According to our post-match xG estimate based on the shots taken, Rosario Central generated 0.89 expected goals against Gimnasia La Plata's 0.56. That confirms the hosts deserved more than they got, but Gimnasia was clinical with what little it had: two counterattacks were enough to take home all three points.

The result also went against our pre-match projections, which gave Rosario Central a 51% chance of winning, against an 18% chance of an away win and a 31% chance of a draw, with expected goals of 1.38 for the hosts and 0.74 for the visitors. On the day, the team with the lower odds on paper had the last word.

What it means in the standings

The result carries weight in Group B of the standings. Gimnasia La Plata climbed to 12 points, sitting in third place with a record of 4 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses in 7 matches played. Rosario Central, meanwhile, stayed on 11 points, in fifth place, with 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in its 7 outings. The gap between the two in the table came down to just 1 point, a fitting summary of how even the two sides have been so far, even though in Arroyito the team that took the points was the one that saw the least of the ball.