Rosario Central hosts Gimnasia La Plata with history on its side but no guarantees

With Ángel Di María, Enzo Copetti and Alejo Veliz sharing four goals each so far this season, Rosario Central hosts Gimnasia La Plata at the Gigante de Arroyito in a Primera División de Argentina matchup that pits two teams separated by just 2 points in the Group B standings.

The home side sits fourth with 11 points from 6 matches (3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with 7 goals scored and 5 conceded), averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game, with clean sheets in just 25% of its matches. Over its last five outings it has posted two wins, two draws and a loss, an uneven run but without back to back defeats. Its most productive scoring window falls between the 31st and 45th minutes.

Gimnasia, for its part, sits eighth with 9 points, the product of 3 wins and 3 losses in 6 matches, with no draws yet. Its goal difference is negative (8 for, 10 against) and its scoring average of just 1 goal per game is the lower of the two. Over its last five matches it has two wins, one draw and two losses, with the most recent defeat coming right before this trip to Rosario. Marcelo Torres, with 6 goals, is its top scorer, followed by Nicolás Barros Schelotto with 4.

A head to head record that heavily favors the home side

If there is one number weighing on this game before kickoff, it is the history between these two: of the 8 matches played between them, Rosario Central has won all eight, with a goal difference of 16 to 4. Gimnasia has yet to record a win or even a draw in this particular matchup, according to available records.

Probable lineups

With medium reliability based on recent patterns, Rosario Central could line up with Jeremías Ledesma in goal; Ignacio Ovando, Gastón Ávila, Emanuel Coronel and Alexis Soto across the back line; Ángel Di María, Franco Ibarra, Vicente Pizarro, Giovanni Cantizano and Alan Rodríguez in midfield; and Enzo Copetti leading the attack.

Gimnasia, with the same level of estimation, is expected to field Nelson Insfrán between the posts; Pedro Silva Torrejón, Enzo Martínez, Alexis Steimbach, Juan Cortazzo and Bautista Barros Schelotto on defense; Ignacio Fernández, Ignacio Miramón, Nicolás Barros Schelotto and Mateo Seoane in midfield; and Agustín Auzmendi up front.

What the numbers say

Our model, based on this season's trends, lists Rosario Central as the favorite, though it does not fully rule out the visitors:

The 51% figure in favor of the home side confirms the logical forecast based on history and recent form, but the 31% chance of a draw and the fact that the gap with an away win is not overwhelming make clear this is not a match settled on paper. The expected goals, per our own estimate, are 1.38 for Rosario Central and 0.74 for Gimnasia, a total of 2.11 that lines up with a 44% probability of the match going over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. It's worth noting these figures are our own projection and not a betting line.

With the head to head record entirely in Rosario Central's favor and both teams needing points to move closer to the top of Group B, the Gigante de Arroyito hosts a match where the home side is the clear favorite, but the visitors are not arriving resigned to defeat.