Newell's and Central Córdoba Clash in Rosario to Escape the Bottom of the Table

Some matches aren't played for glory but to escape the mire. That's the case in this clash at Estadio Marcelo Bielsa, where Newell's Old Boys hosts Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) in a direct confrontation at the bottom of Group A in Argentina's Primera División. Neither side is in good form right now, which makes this match a chance to stop the bleeding before the table gets even more complicated for both of them.

Newell's sits eighth with 17 points from 12 matches played, the product of 4 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, with 11 goals scored and 9 allowed. Over its last five matches the club has managed just one win, three draws and one loss, a run that's kept it afloat but unable to break away. At home this season, though, Frank Kudelka's side averages 0.76 goals scored and 1.24 allowed per match across 8 games, with a 25 percent clean sheet rate and a tendency to score late, between the 76th and 90th minutes.

On the other side, Central Córdoba arrives bruised: the club sits 14th with 10 points from 12 matches, a record of 2 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses, and a negative goal difference of 10 scored against 16 allowed. Recent form hasn't helped either, with no wins in its last five matches, three draws and two losses. On the road this season, Sebastián Domínguez's side has scored just 0.12 goals per match while allowing 1.5, also with a 25 percent clean sheet rate in that sample. The points gap between the two sides in the standings is just 7, a tight margin given both are fighting in the same part of the table.

What the history says

The head-to-head record between the two sides spans 8 matches, tilted in favor of the Santiago del Estero club: 4 wins for Central Córdoba, 2 for Newell's and 2 draws. In terms of goals, Central Córdoba also comes out ahead, with 14 scored compared to Newell's 12. That's no small detail for a match that looks evenly matched on paper.

Possible lineups

For Newell's, the likely lineup would be led by Josué Reinatti in goal, with Martín Ortega, Lucas Carrizo, Lautaro Giannetti and Franco Escobar across the back line. In midfield, Rodrigo Herrera, Facundo Guch and Luca Regiardo would be expected to feature, while up front the attacking trio would likely be Walter Mazzantti, Matías Cóccaro and Santiago Solari. This is an estimated lineup based on recent matches, not a confirmed one.

Central Córdoba, for its part, could field Alan Aguerre between the posts, with Alejandro Maciel, Darío Cáceres, Fernando Martínez, Santiago Moyano and Facundo Mansilla on defense. In midfield, Matías Vera, Lucas González, Marco Iacobellis, Diego Barrera and Leonardo Sequeira are expected to start. This is also a probable lineup, inferred rather than official.

What the numbers say

Our model calculates very even probabilities for this match, a reflection of two teams going through similar stretches:

All three outcomes are nearly even, with no clear favorite. The expected goals are tight as well: 1.12 for Newell's and 1.04 for Central Córdoba, a combined total of 2.16 that points to a low-scoring affair rather than a blowout. In fact, the probability of more than 2.5 goals is just 13 percent, and the chance of both teams scoring drops to 8 percent. This is an in-house EnPelotas projection, not a betting line.

With both teams in need of points and only 7 separating them in the standings, what's coming at the Marcelo Bielsa looks like a tight, tangled match with little room and almost no margin for error.