Rosario Central survives Tucuman comeback to grind out 2-3 thriller

Six minutes. That's all it took for Rosario Central to put the game at 0-2 in Tucuman, with two goals from the same player, both off his left foot, though struck from two completely different areas of the field. Gaston Avila opened the scoring in the 2nd minute, tapping in a cross from Angel Di Maria off a corner kick, and four minutes later he struck again, this time with a long-range effort that snuck in low by the left post. The final 2-3 scoreline at the Monumental Presidente Jose Fierro ended up reflecting a far more even contest than that opening burst suggested.

Because Atletico Tucuman didn't just sit back and watch. With the game already an uphill battle, the hosts found their way back into it before halftime. In the 36th minute, Alexis Canelo rose for a header to pull one back after a corner from Ramiro Ruiz Rodriguez, and just five minutes later, Ruiz Rodriguez himself leveled the score with a right-footed strike from the middle of the box, set up by Leandro Diaz. The first half ended 2-2, and emotionally at least, it felt like Tucuman had flipped the script, even if the scoreboard still read even.

The second half was back and forth with chances on both ends but no goals, until the 79th minute, when Julian Fernandez, who had just come on as a substitute, finished off a counterattack with a strike from outside the box, assisted by Alan Rodriguez, to make it 2-3 for good. Rosario Central held on through the closing minutes, including a stretch where Marco Ruben had several attempts that just wouldn't go in, and walked away from Tucuman with all three points.

Dominance that didn't translate to the scoreboard

The match numbers tell a clear story: Rosario Central was comfortably in control of the ball and the game, but the final result was tighter than those figures would suggest.

It's striking that despite holding more than double the possession and nearly doubling Tucuman's passing numbers, Rosario Central couldn't pull away on the scoreboard. Total shots ended up almost even, 15 to 16, which helps explain why Tucuman was able to cause damage despite seeing so much less of the ball. Our expected goals estimate, based on the match's shots and calculated after the final whistle, gives Atletico Tucuman 1.401 against Rosario Central's 0.867, a number that reflects how clinical the home side was with its limited chances, even though it wasn't enough to come away with points.

Before kickoff, the projection we published in our preview gave Rosario Central a 43% chance of winning, against a 24% chance of a home win and a 33% chance of a draw, with a total expected goals count of 2.04 for the match. The final result, with five goals total and a lead that Rosario Central had to defend right up until the end, ended up exceeding that figure, though the outcome itself, an away win, was in line with what the model had flagged as the most likely scenario.

What it means in the standings

In Group B, Rosario Central came into this match as the leader with 25 points, while Atletico Tucuman sat in tenth place with 14, an 11-point gap between the two sides. The road win confirms that gap between them so far this tournament: Rosario Central came in with a record of 7 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in 13 matches, compared to Atletico Tucuman's 3 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in the same number of outings.

Above all, the match leaves behind the image of a Tucuman side that refused to fold after falling behind 0-2 in just six minutes and managed to level the score before halftime, and a Rosario Central side that, despite not playing its sharpest game in front of goal, found in Julian Fernandez, just off the bench, the play that delivered the three points in the second half.