San Jose Earthquakes host Colorado Rapids with the edge in their favor in MLS

Six points separate San Jose Earthquakes from Colorado Rapids in the Western Conference, but on the field at PayPal Park that gap can close quickly if the match plays out the way recent history suggests it will: with goals from both sides. MLS pits a team fighting to crack the top of the group against one that needs points to stop looking over its shoulder in the standings.

San Jose sits fourth with 48 points through 31 games played (13 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses, with 52 goals for and 45 against). Over their last five matches they've picked up one win, three draws and one loss, a stretch that keeps them competitive without pulling away. Colorado, meanwhile, sits eighth with 42 points, the product of 12 wins, 6 draws and 13 losses, with 42 goals for and 41 against. Over their own last five they also managed one win and three draws, plus one loss, so both sides arrive in very similar form: neither winning consistently, but neither falling apart either.

Playing at home in MLS this season, across a sample of 15 games, San Jose averages 1.736 goals scored and 1.529 allowed per match, with 27% of games ending in a clean sheet and their most productive stretch coming between the 76th and 90th minutes. Preston Judd stands out as their top scoring threat in that sample with 16 goals, followed by Timo Werner and Ousseni Bouda with 6 apiece. Colorado, on the road and also over 15 games this season, scores 0.868 goals per match and allows 1.736, with just 20% of matches kept scoreless and their best scoring stretch between the 31st and 45th minutes. There, Paxten Aaronson leads the way with 7 goals, followed by Darren Yapi with 4.

An even, goal-filled history

San Jose and Colorado have met 8 times, with 3 wins for each side and 2 draws. The goal split is just as tight: 8 for the Earthquakes and 10 for the Rapids, a figure that backs up the idea that this matchup usually comes with plenty of action at both ends.

Probable lineups

With low reliability according to a projection based on recent matches, San Jose could line up with Angus Gunn in goal, a back line of Dave Romney, Reid Roberts and Daniel Munie, a midfield of Eduard Löwen, Ronaldo Vieira, Jamar Ricketts and Jack Jasinski, and a front three of Beau Leroux, Timo Werner and Preston Judd.

Colorado, with medium reliability in its projection, would field Nicolas Hansen in goal, a back line of Rob Holding, Miguel Navarro, Loïc Williams and Reggie Cannon, a crowded midfield with Paxten Aaronson, Wayne Frederick, Donavan Phillip, Josh Atencio and Hamzat Ojediran, and Morgan Whittaker as the lone forward.

What the numbers say

Our model gives San Jose the best chance of winning, though it's far from a formality: there's real room for a draw and for Colorado to walk away with all three points.

This is our own estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction. The expected goals figures from our model, another in-house estimate, come out to 1.62 for San Jose and 1.17 for Colorado, a combined 2.79 that lines up with a 57% chance the match goes over 2.5 total goals and a 46% chance both teams find the net.

With the home side looking to close in on the top of the Western Conference and the visitors needing points to avoid slipping further back, PayPal Park should see an even match, with chances for goals on both ends just as the recent history between these two clubs suggests.